Election Notes

When veteran British journalist Robert Fisk was recently in Yerevan, he remarked in a commentary written for The Independent that only in a country such as Armenia could a corrupt official seek election in competition with a former corrupt official. Fisk openly referred to the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, and former president, Levon Ter Petrosian. It’s no wonder, then, that most Armenians dislike both and many are confused as to who to vote for.

In between those in the minority who support either Sarkisian or Ter Petrosian, apart from a notable segment of civil society who support the latter and yearn for “regime change” usually by any means possible, is a larger mass of undecided voters. Unfortunately, they seem to be forgotten by the media loyal to the government, or sympathetic to the former first president of Armenia.

As opposition politician Vazgen Manukian commented recently, while many people are against the prime minister becoming president, there might be many more who are against the return of Ter Petrosian. Indeed, Manukian has good reason to say such things. It was after all Ter Petrosian who set Armenia on its path of electoral fraud and the oppression of opposition parties and activists in 1996.

The presidential election scheduled for Sept. 22, 1996, overshadowed other political developments throughout the year. Eager to avoid either jeopardizing the tenuous economic upswing that began in 1994 or exacerbating tensions within his party, the Pan-Armenian National Movement, incumbent Pres. Levon Ter-Petrosyan refused in late January to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan. Of the seven presidential candidates formally registered in August, three withdrew in mid-September and pledged their support for the leading opposition challenger to Ter-Petrosyan, former prime minister Vazgen Manukyan. International monitors registered serious violations during the poll and vote count and queried the legality of the official results that gave Ter-Petrosyan 51.75% and Manukyan 41.29% of the vote. Manukyan’s supporters launched mass demonstrations in Yerevan to protest alleged falsification of the vote and on September 25 attacked the parliament building. Fifty people were injured in ensuing clashes with government troops.

As one pro-government friend said to me only last week, even the current president, Robert Kocharian, and prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, never sent out the army to control the streets at times of political unrest as Ter Petrosian did eleven years ago when the election was widely considered to be falsified. Even some journalists critical of the government now remember those times well. One of them is Armenia Now’s Vahan Ishkhanian.

In those times, working in an oppositional newspaper was dangerous. Colleagues of mine were beaten and newspaper offices were targets for being vandalized by authorities. I lived in a building with a dark entrance and often entered with fear of who might be waiting to attack me there.

[…]

During those tense days of 1996 I learned that I was wanted by police; that my name was among those on a list at the airport where I would be detained if I tried to leave the country.

I changed two apartments, to have my trace lost. The police had gone to ransack my place; my mother had called the neighbors from the window to come stop the search. The neighbors had fled the home.

[…]

I had escaped, but hundreds had been caught. Like me, they also have their memories of the last time Levon Ter-Petrosyan was in charge. Deputy Davit Vardanyan was beaten with his legs and arms tied. Among those doing the beating was Mushegh Saghatelyan, who, Ter-Petrosyan stated in his speech, is persecuted by the authorities. It’s true, Saghatelyan was fired, tried and jailed.

[…]

Elections? Democracy? Change in power? The question was closed in 1995-96.

I had forgotten the past, I was interested in tomorrow. I am a journalist. I wish for a press that is free from control of political forces and where my colleagues and I can earn a proper living. I was thinking of the platforms that would dismantle the regime and set democracy so that every person gets freedom from such things as “dossiers”.

The return of Ter-Petrosyan is seen as offering an alternative.

Serzh or Levon? I have no choice. I think of a different thing now: Spare us from the return of the past.

Speaking to some of those not affiliated with civil society, but representative of a fledgling group of young and educated Armenians who do or should make up the country’s albeit small middle class, few say they will vote for Ter Petrosian. It’s why they’re not attending his rallies, for example, and why even though they dislike Sarkisian, they are more adamant in their dislike of Ter Petrosian. Vazgen Manukian warned of such a situation.

“These authorities must go and that is inevitable,” he said. “But who should replace them? I fear that we would get more of the same [with Ter-Petrosian’s return to power.]”

[…]

“They are putting the people in a very difficult situation because the majority of the people do not accept either party,” Manukian told a news conference. “There are people who consider Levon Ter-Petrosian the lesser evil but there are also many, many people who consider Serzh Sarkisian the lesser evil. And I don’t exclude that if Levon Ter-Petrosian and Serzh Sarkisian go into the second round Serzh Sarkisian will emerge as a legitimate president.”

True, they also wonder if the situation in the 1990s wouldn’t have been the same under another president, but even so, they associate the times of no electricity, no heat, and no bread even, with the head of state then — Levon Ter Petrosian. Indeed, one thing that was notable at Ter Petrosian’s rallies in recent weeks was the front rows of the most active participants were not those people.

They were the same who made up the front rows of opposition rallies in 2003, 2004 and 2007. There were no new faces apart from those towards the back who stood silently listening to what Ter Petrosian had to say. Indeed, apart from the front rows of the rally there was no enthusiasm of any note to report among such people.

Not to say that they don’t support Ter Petrosian, but it would be wrong to conclude that there is momentum in the former president’s campaign. Indeed, for now at least, there appears to instead be concern among a sizable percentage of the population that Ter Petrosian represents nothing different to what is in place today. Again, journalists such as Vahan Ishkhanian accuse Ter Petrosian of creating that system.

[T]he Constitution of 1995 created a whole vertical anti-democratic system, the engineer of which is Levon Ter-Petrosyan. As the country belonged to one person, and not to the people, hence another single person would be able to take it from him, that’s exactly what happened as a result of power turnover in 1998.

Of course people have a quality of changing, and one can suppose that Ter-Petrosyan has reconsidered his views about the state structure. However, in his speech he did not criticize the system he had created and talked only about the achievements of his regime. And his ideological speakerphone “Haykakan Zhamanak” with its propaganda of the 1995 Constitution, shows that the former team not only hasn’t undergone any ideological changes, but is even proud and defends the anti-democratic system it had created.

Impeachment was like a stretching exercise before Ter-Petrosyan’s run for presidency, whose only plan is in replacing people – Serzh Sargsyan and Kocharyan with Ter-Petrosyan, rather than an ideological struggle. And if a person should be replaced by another person, what difference does it make to a regular resident who is in charge of appointing mayors, or whether the unfair court verdict is carried out by Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s or Kocharyan’s or Sargsyan’s order?

Others, such as those at the Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement, agree.

If LTP is elected won’t he overthrow the Kocharian Clan only to replace it with his own LTP Clan? Won’t he go hunting down all the businesses that have established their comfortable little profitable enterprises under the protective wings of Kocharian, Bargavach and HHK, only to replace those with petty enterprises under his own Cln? Yes, that’s quite a possibility.

Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

And with many bloggers reacting negatively to signs held up at Levon Ter Petrosian’s most recent rally on Saturday likening him to a King, perhaps such concerns are very valid indeed. For the most part, Ter Petrosian’s entourage seems to be made up of those who once held power or hoped to attain it, but who are now left out in the cold, so to speak. Blogian was even harsher in describing the situation.

It is quite ironic that the romantic nationalists who support Ter-Petrosyan call the former president a monarch, not realizing that the last thing Armenia needs is another king - which would be the case if either Levon Ter-Petrosyan or Serzh Sargsyan are elected. The Ter-Petrosyan “monarchship” was clearly demonstrated in the 1996 elections when he was celebrating his “victory” before the votes were even being counted. And I can almost guarantee to you a Serzh Sargsyan “victory” for the upcoming elections.

Armenia’s politics has never upset me as much as it does today. The more time passes the worse it becomes with former morons wanting to replace current morons.

And I think Armenia needs to change it constitution so that a president can only serve two terms in a lifetime. Otherwise, we may see lots of monarchs striving for return.

And if the words spoken by the former president at the meeting, which attracted probably not more than 15,000 people even though it was a Saturday when many more could have attended if they wanted, are anything to go by, the former president appears willing to allow those who evade taxes and monopolize the economy at the expense of the population go unpunished if they support him.

In his speech, Ter-Petrosian disputed the widely held belief that the “oligarchs” are allowed to grossly evade taxes in return for their political and economic support for the ruling regime. He alleged that most of the taxes paid by them end up in the pockets of “jackals” running the country — his most bitter personal attack on Sarkisian and Kocharian yet. “In fact, you have fulfilled your tax obligations but your payments have gone not to the state budget but to a totally different place,” he said.

It’s a fear that one blogger translated by The Armenian Observer also had when Ter Petrosian made his return to active politics in September.

Reporter_Arm speaks in greater detail about the meeting, and, noting, that people like the well known businessman: Khachatur Sukiasyan were also present at the event, finds it noteworthy, that Ter-Petrosyan dedicated a part of his speech to the word “oligarch”, saying this term shouldn’t be used, and that “They are businessmen and pay taxes, perhaps even more then they should. But you know whose pocket these taxes flow into”. The blogger speculates, that at this point Ter-Petrosyan is sending a message to the oligarchs, that in case of his election, their interests will be protected.

Khachatur Sukiasian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

One wonders what would happen to those businesses that didn’t support him if he wins, but anyway, the point is that it is clear that without the support of some of the oligarchs, many of those currently in power, and also prominent opposition politicians such as Vazgen Manukian and Raffi Hovannisian, the Ter Petrosian bandwagon is not going to roll much further. He knows it, and has also said as much by constantly appealing to them for their support.

But then again, this is Armenia, where democracy doesn’t really exist, and where few think of coming to power by means of elections. Indeed, as mentioned in my previous post, it is reported by an albeit pro-government source that Ter Petrosian has already put the idea of a “colored revolution” to western diplomats he recently met at the French Embassy in Yerevan.

Some of the words used by Ter Petrosian on Saturday, as well as the focus of the radical opposition on trying to launch street protests after the parliamentary election in May rather than actually campaign to win the votes of the electorate by talking of issues and policies, seem to back up such concerns.

“What keeps you from closing ranks and toppling the khan yoke loathed by everyone, including yourself? … How do you sleep at night? Can you look your wives and children in the eyes?”

“If you continue to dishonorably serve the current authorities, they will be able to destroy you one by one at any moment,” he continued. “But if you jointly oppose them, they won’t last even for one day.”

According to the source, the western diplomats showed no interest in the offer, although Ter Petrosian allegedly said he would take increased interest in his campaign by the international media as a “green light” as of when it would appear. A Eurasia Daily Monitor report by RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan seems to support the idea that the West is more interested in managed democratic development than another “colored revolution” in what remains a stable country.

The European Union […] appears to have no such concerns […]. The EU’s special representative to the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, sounded quite optimistic about the Armenian presidential race after holding talks with Kocharian, Sarkisian, Ter-Petrosian, and other opposition leaders in Yerevan last month. The February vote, he said, will underscore the “maturity of Armenia’s political system” and a “high degree of pluralism” in the country (RFE/RL Armenia Report, November 20).

The EU praised the Kocharian administration’s conduct of the May parliamentary elections, which are regarded as fraudulent by the Armenian opposition and civic groups. The positive assessment paved the way for the release of €21 million ($29 million) in financial assistance to Armenia, stemming from its participation in the bloc’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) program. Just how that assistance will facilitate political reform in the country, a key aim for its inclusion in the ENP, remains unclear.

The Kocharian administration does not seem to be facing much pressure from the Council of Europe either. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian discussed preparations for the presidential election with Secretary General Terry Davis and other senior Council of Europe officials during a December 7 visit to Strasbourg (Statement by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, December 7). None of those officials has publicly expressed concern at the election-related developments in the country. In trying to promote Armenia’s democratization, the Strasbourg-based organization puts the emphasis on legislative reform, a strategy that has clearly failed to work, as evidenced by the recent erosion of civil liberties enjoyed by Armenians.

Without that support, Ter Petrosian and the radical opposition stand no chance in launching an “uprising” of any sort, although that might change if he can convince voters that he was not to blame for the hardships they experienced under his regime and especially if opposition heavyweights such as Manukian, Hovannisian and possibly Artur Baghdasarian were to join him. So then we have the other side of the coin.

Basically, although some opposition-minded people consider Ter Petrosian’s return concocted by the authorities to help achieve a Sarkisian victory, the government appears to be taking the threat seriously, and perhaps more so than it actually deserves. In the Eurasia Daily Monitor piece, Danielyan details some of the events and persecutions which have occurred to date.

With just over two months to go before a fateful presidential election, Armenia’s leadership is stepping up what increasingly looks like repression against supporters of its most formidable opponent, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian. The authorities in Yerevan have been busy in recent weeks harassing his loyalists (including a prominent businessman), orchestrating a televised smear campaign against him, and trying to muzzle the rare television station that dared to provide airtime to Ter-Petrosian.

[…]

There have also been reports of police hunting down young pro-Ter-Petrosian activists posting anti-Sarkisian leaflets in the city center. One of them claimed to have been ill-treated by the chief of the Yerevan police and warned against engaging in anti-government activities before being set free. The 20-year-old activist was severely beaten by unknown men and hospitalized for several days after publicizing his detention (Haykakan Zhamanak, November 16). That the opposition demonstrations are perceived to be dangerous by the authorities was confirmed on December 5, when tax inspectors confiscated 4,000 newly printed leaflets announcing the next Ter-Petrosian rally. The printing company that manufactured them was promptly accused of tax evasion (Aravot, December 7).

Tax-evasion cases have also been brought against several companies owned by Khachatur Sukiasian, the sole Armenian tycoon who has publicly voiced support for Ter-Petrosian. Two of their chief executives are now under arrest pending trial. Local observers believe the crackdown is politically motivated and aimed at discouraging other “oligarchs” from following Sukiasian’s example. Virtually all of them are dependent on and loyal to the regime, having helped it rig past elections.

Yet, even so, the level of political persecution has not yet reached the same heights as that experienced for the 2003 presidential election and even during the failed attempt to launch a “colored revolution” in 2004. Then, prominent opposition activists such as Ashot Manucharyan and Grisha Virabian were severely beaten and hospitalized, journalists were attacked by government-linked thugs, opposition party headquarters were ransacked, and those attending opposition rallies were subject to administrative arrest.

To date at least, the situation is nothing compared to then, with police maintaining a low profile at Ter Petrosian rallies and there being no sign of any attempt at creating any disturbances. On the other hand, the Yerevan Press Club reports that the situation with the media is becoming one of concern, although I’d add that the pro-opposition press and even supposedly “independent” outlets, some of which are actually linked to Ter Petrosian’s team, are hardly maintaining a balance when covering the former president.

Armenia’s main broadcasters have grown even more tendentious over the past month in their coverage of the upcoming presidential election, openly promoting the frontrunner, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, and attacking his most formidable opponent, a media watchdog said on Monday.

Formidable? Even before the pre-election campaign of the other opposition contenders has started? Basically, if anything, the media is taking sides, although it has to be said that the pro-government TV stations are the worst if only because their coverage is greater. So, until the media is to be scrutinized by the international community during the main pre-election campaign, there is little objectivity although Armenia Now seems to be striking a balance between neutral, anti-LTP, and pro-LTP pieces.

True, blogs seem to be taking a more representative role, and the Internet is becoming more of a medium for political activity. In lieu of access to the broadcast media, Ter Petrosian’s team are using the Internet very well indeed, and Facebook users are also becoming involved. For example, there are currently 260 members of a Facebook group to promote Free and Fair Elections in the South Caucasus. A group supportive of Ter Petrosian currently has 37 members, while one against him has 55.

Nevertheless, many Armenian voters I’ve spoken to suggest that greatest electoral violation of all has not been addressed properly. That is, the failure once again to allow U.S.-born opposition politician Raffi Hovannisian to run in the 19 February presidential election. It is so far unknown who Hovannisian will lend his support to instead, although sources indicate that he is negotiating with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun on the basis that he receives assurances they will not pull out and support the prime minister.

Opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian and his Zharangutyun (Heritage) party failed to decide on Thursday whom to support in Armenia’s upcoming presidential election, postponing a move that could have a major impact on its outcome.

[…]

Hovannisian, who had served as independent Armenia’s first foreign minister while being a U.S. national, maintains that he was unjustly and unlawfully denied Armenian citizenship by President Robert Kocharian and his predecessor, Levon Ter-Petrosian, in the 1990s. Ter-Petrosian is now emerging as the leading opposition presidential candidate and is keen to win over the Zharangutyun leader. The latter is also understood to be courted by the governing Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun).

Of course, it is possible that Hovannisian will support Ter Petrosian, and then the threat to Sarkisian becomes greater although some voters say that even that will not persuade them to vote for the former president. Indeed, as of writing, even those against Sarkisian do not believe that Ter Petrosian is able to beat the prime minister even if the election met international standards for democratic elections. One Hovannisian supporter even said he would vote for Sarkisian if Ter Petrosian made it into a second round, although admittedly, another said the opposite.

Even so, it only goes to show how confused the electorate remains with a sizable number again saying they will not vote. Among students and the potential middle class, some say they will vote for Sarkisian while others say they will vote for any other candidate other than Ter Petrosian. Those who have always supported the more radical of opposition groups will of course vote for Ter Petrosian, but as the parliamentary election showed, they are not exactly in the majority.

Levon Ter Petrosian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Nor too is the pro-government field, but even so, the situation risks getting out of control. While Ter Petrosian once again talks of normalizing ties with Turkey, something he apparently promised western diplomats in the hope they would indirectly support post-election street protests, a pro-government source says that the authorities are ready to take a leaf out of neighboring Georgia’s book. If Russia is perceived as a threat there, then the government will do the same with Turkey in order to discredit Ter Petrosian.

Former President Levon Ter-Petrosian reaffirmed on Saturday his conciliatory stance on Amenia’s relations with Turkey, saying that Yerevan should leave it to the worldwide Armenian Diaspora to pursue international recognition of the 1915 genocide. He also deplored Armenian efforts to thwart Turkey’s membership in the European Union.

The highly sensitive issue was a major theme of his latest speech at an anti-government rally in Yerevan, with Ter-Petrosian responding to government claims that his views on Turkish-Armenian relations are “pro-Turkish.”

Echoing long-standing claims by Armenian nationalist groups, President Robert Kocharian said in a newspaper interview last week that his predecessor is “ready to forget the genocide and turn Armenia into an appendage of Turkey.” State television and other media controlled by Kocharian, for their part, have cited Turkish press commentaries saying that Ter-Petrosian’s return to power would be welcomed by Armenia’s historical foe.

Some unconfirmed rumors suggest that Turkish citizens have been detained while laundering money at currency exchanges in Yerevan, for example. And with the dram continuing to appreciate against the dollar and hitting remittances from abroad hard, that might be enough to do the task if such reports are true. It might seem like a cheap trick, but both the government and the radical opposition seem to be reverting to such actions. Democracy seems to be forgotten in the entire process.

Just as the government attempts to discredit Ter Petrosian, the radical opposition, made up of minor parties with little support in society, is attempting to discredit others who have not yet joined the ranks of the revolutionary-wannabes. Unfortunately, while it would be nice to hope that the government could just allow a level playing ground, and that the radical opposition could stop hoping to topple the authorities through street protests, the potential for clashes naturally increases.

Meanwhile, those candidates who have not yet launched their campaigns hopefully based on policy issues remain ignored. Maybe that will change and we’ll get a better presidential election than in 2003, just as we had a “better” parliamentary election earlier this year, but I do have to conclude that it looks likely that with the return of Levon Ter Petrosian, there aren’t many in civil society or the radical opposition who are prepared to contest this election democratically.

Of course, while the government appears to be behaving better than they normally do, at present at least, such an environment might also mean tensions will increase. However, for now, nobody believes a “revolution” can succeed, and one has to wonder if scheduling the election for the day before a national celebration of the 20th anniversary of the Karabakh movement isn’t coincidental. Time will tell, but for now, the situation is nonetheless becoming concerning.