2008 Presidential Election Monitor

Yesterday’s third rally by the former and first president of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, has been and gone, and I can’t say that it was anything remarkable. Now Ter Petrosian has come out of self-imposed retirement and held two previous rallies, interest in attending other meetings appears to be waning. This was certainly the case for two friends, one who will vote for Levon and the other who loathes him. Neither attended the rally although they had been to the two previous ones.

Despite it being a Saturday when it could have been supposed that more people would turn up, there were actually fewer in attendance with large spaces on both sides of Liberty Square and a crowd that noticeably thinned out further away from the podium. Chants from the front resonated in the distance while walking towards the back of the crowd with the vast majority of people remaining silent. A senior Aylentrank and pro-Ter Petrosian activist even commented that there were fewer people in attendance.

ArmInfo reports 15,000, but it might have actually been less. Certainly, it wasn’t larger and I don’t expect anything interesting to happen with Ter Petrosian until the official pre-election campaign period starts early next year.

Of course, it should also be pointed out that leaflets advertising the rally were confiscated by the authorities and there were none to be seen posted anywhere in the city in the days leading up to the meeting. And although there were visibly less people in attendance, it wasn’t such a drop off as most opposition rallies usually experience. Although some youth activists are openly supportive of Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid, it also has to be said that the audience was largely made up of middle aged and elderly people.

Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Regardless, Levon’s main backers, radical opposition leaders Aram Sarkisian and Nikol Pashinian and businessman MP Khachatur Sukiasian (Grzo) appeared to be in high spirits. A speech in Russian by Marxist David Hakobian particularly got Sukiasian into a buoyant mood despite the politically-linked scrutiny of his businesses by the authorities. However, once again, what was most striking about Ter Petrosian’s entourage is that all represent minor political parties with no real support in society.

David Hakobian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Without the likes of more prominent and respected opposition politicians such as Vazgen Manukian and particularly Raffi Hovannisian behind him, it seems unlikely that Ter Petrosian represents any kind of threat at all to the prime minister. Yet, there is the potential to mount a serious challenge if that were to change and this is probably what the authorities are most concerned about. Many of us also suspect that even if the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, wins in a relatively clean vote that Ter Petrosian and his radical opposition colleagues will nonetheless take their supporters to the streets.

According to one albeit pro-government source, Ter Petrosian has already raised the issue of a “colored revolution” in a meeting at the French Embassy with Western diplomats. If this source is correct, his appeal for outside support was met with silence. Ter Petrosian reportedly said that if they were to encourage the foreign media to report more on the presidential election and his campaign, he would take that as a “green light” for “revolution” if and when that happened. So far, however, it would appear that the international community is content with the idea of continuity and a Sarkisian presidency.

Levon Ter Petrosian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

According to my source, Ter Petrosian reportedly promised the ambassadors he met that he would normalize relations with Turkey and move official Yerevan’s position away from Genocide recognition. It’s perhaps no wonder then that this issue is already being raised in press reports although to be fair to Kocharian and Sarkisian, neither is behind the lack of progress in Armenian-Turkish relations. If anyone is to blame, it is in fact Ankara. Ter Petrosian’s perceived pro-Turkish stance, however, will be used against him and he responded to such criticisms in his speech.

Nevertheless, I’m told by two sources, one pro-governmental and the other pro-opposition, that the National Security Service (NSS) will be used to break a scandal involving Turkish citizens in Armenia. It is believed that the NSS is waiting for the right moment to release the news to the public in such a way to damage Ter Petrosian’s standing. Not that I believe that he has much, of course. His team might say 70 percent of the public support him, but that really doesn’t seem to be true. Indeed, for now at least, while many Armenians dislike Sarkisian, apart from civil society activists, there are as many who dislike Ter Petrosian.

Even so, with the start of the official pre-election campaign a little over a month away, anything could happen to change that, but for sure, while journalists sympathetic to Ter Petrosian report him as being the main opposition challenger to the prime minister, that’s actually quite deceptive given that none of the others have launched their campaigns yet. Indeed, for now at least it can’t be said that Ter Petrosian would make it into a likely second round of the election. Ultimately, until the official campaign period begins, who the main opposition challenger might be remains uncertain.

Instead, with this week’s rally by Ter Petrosian passing by with nothing worthy of note to mention, the main news is that there are nine candidates who will run in the 19 February presidential election as Panorama.am reported on 6 December.

Today at 18:00 o’clock the Central Electoral Committee announced that the nomination of the candidates for presidential elections finished. So, nine candidates are nominated. They are self nominated Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Artashes Geghamyan “National Unity” party, Serjh Sargsyan “Armenian Republican” party, Vazgen Manukyan “National Democratic Union” party, Vahan Hovhannisyan “Armenian Revolutionary Federation”, Artur Baghdasaryan “Orinac Yerkir” (Country of Laws), Tigran Karapetyan “People’s party”. Aram Harutunyan “National Concord” party makes attempts to participate in the elections. Arman Melikyan, ex - advisor of NKR president self nominated.

The registration part of the candidates starts from December 31 to January 20.

Meanwhile, opposition activist Aramazd has posted a video of Levon Ter Petrosian’s speech and other political news is included in a roundup of blogs by The Armenian Observer. As usual, photographs taken as the 2008 presidential election in Armenia unfolds are available on my Flickr site.

Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Hovannes Hovannisian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Aram Sarkisian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Khachatur Sukiasian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Ararat Zurabian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Nikol Pashinian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Khachatur Sukiasian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian, Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007