2008 Presidential Election Monitor

As the clock ticks down to the official start of the pre-election campaign for the 2008 presidential election in Armenia, political activity in the country is noticeably picking up pace. First off, Artur Baghdasarian has been nominated as a candidate to run in the election by Orinats Yerkir, one of only two opposition parties represented in the Armenian National Assembly.

The news comes as no surprise as Artur Baghdasarian made clear his intention to run as early as the end of last year, but his candidacy will undoubtedly see many of his [opposition] rivals accuse the young ex-parliament speaker of working secretly with the authorities. Unfortunately, such petty in-fighting is synonymous with the opposition in Armenia and bound to limit their effectiveness.

Nevertheless, Artur Baghdasarian and his vice-chair, Heghine Bisharian, at least appear to be in opposition to the government. Indeed, while considered a populist, the party has pretty much stuck to its guns since 2004 as a critical voice even when it was represented in the cabinet, and not least after the dispersal of the opposition protest on Baghramian Avenue in the early hours of 13 April 2004.

At any rate, RFE/RL reports that Artur Baghdasarian, who ironically entered parliament as a deputy for Levon Ter Petrosian’s Pan-Armenian National Movement (HHSh) in 1995, will not be supporting the former president.

“Not only because we don’t consider the country to be a gangster state. Appreciating Ter-Petrosian’s contribution to the establishment of our statehood, we are against his approach of totaly dismantling of the state and legal system,” he said.

[…]

“We need a legitimate president in Armenia elected neither through labels nor barbed wires,” Baghdasarian said.

Artur Baghdasarian, Orinats Yerkir Election Campaign Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Meanwhile, all eyes are on another opposition leader with representation in parliament, Raffi Hovannisian. The U.S.-born politician who served as Armenia’s first foreign minister under Ter Petrosian has not unexpectedly been again rejected in his attempt to run for the presidency.

Having had successive applications for citizenship frustrated by Levon Ter Petrosian and his successor as president, Robert Kocharian, Raffi Hovannisian does not meet the minimum residency and citizenship requirements necessary to do so. Hovannisian only received his citizenship in 2001 and won’t be eligible to run for president until 2011.

Ironically, the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, is reported by RFE/RL to apparently lament the absence of Hovannisian from the list of contenders out to challenge his own presidential bid. It is not clear whether such regret is genuine or not.

Sarkisian, widely seen as the election frontrunner, defended the decision, saying that it stemmed from the constitution. Still, he indicated that he would prefer to face Hovannisian, rather than other, more radical opposition contenders.

“I consider the non-registration a forced step on the part of the authorities,” Sarkisian told reporters. “I do regret that their legal ban on Raffi Hovannisian’s participation in the presidential election because I think he could have played a positive role.”

As mentioned in a previous post, what Hovannisian does next might well determine which candidate will face Sarkisian in a likely second round. Opinion polls show the prime minister with insufficient support to win outright in a first round. Some pro-opposition forces clearly hope that Hovannisian will support Ter Petrosian although one source says that he is already negotiating with other parties such as the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnakstutyun (ARF-D).

In conversations with young voters who cast their ballots for Hovannisian’s Heritage party in May, however, it is uncertain where his support might be directed. Some Heritage voters say they would vote for Ter Petrosian to prevent Sarkisian from becoming president while others say the complete opposite. While it is unclear how Hovannisian views Ter Petrosian’s return, it is unlikely and probably unthinkable that he would support Sarkisian.

The admittedly pro-government source, however, says that Hovannisian has offered the ARF-D his support as long as there are assurances the party will not back Sarkisian if their candidate pulls out of the presidential race. On the other hand, a possible boycott of the vote might also be on the cards. Heritage remain tight-lipped on the matter to date.

Nevertheless, as the Armenian Libertarian Socialist Movement recently concluded, his decision might well determine the success or not of Ter Petrosian’s campaign. Certainly, if Hovannisian were to instead support the former president, Sarkisian’s victory in the February vote is by no means guaranteed even if many Armenians consider that the outcome has already been predetermined by the authorities.

On a brighter note, however, Unzipped comments on news that for the first time in Armenia’s short history as an independent post-Soviet state, exit polls will be conducted. The move was announced by the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, in a meeting yesterday with the U.S. Charge d’Affaires, Joseph Pennington.

For the first time, exit poll will be conducted during presidential elections in Armenia. This offer was made by current US envoy in Armenia during his meeting today with Prime Minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan. Armenian Prime Minister accepted the offer, adding that even if US did not offer it, they would have sought assistance of specialised agencies to conduct exit poll. This is certainly positive development. If the results of exit poll, which are usually announced immediately after polling stations closed, would be similar to official results published by Central Electorate Commission, this would add to legitimacy of conducted elections.

RFE/RL also mentions this development in a larger piece on a meeting between the Council of Europe (CE) and the current Armenian president, Robert Kocharian. Interestingly, the CE once again reiterated its belief that the May parliamentary election was largely democratic. However, the visiting delegation stressed that February’s vote must mark further improvement.

Kocharian was cited by his office as telling Colombier that his administration is determined to hold “elections meeting international standards.” Similar assurances were apparently given by Sarkisian as well.

The upcoming vote was also a key theme of Sarkisian’s lunch meeting on Wednesday with the Yerevan-based ambassadors of leading European Union member states. The Armenian government’s press office released no details of the meeting.

The Armenian premier also discussed preparations for the presidential election at a separate meeting with the U.S. charge d’affaires in Yerevan, Joseph Pennington, on Tuesday.

Khachatur Sukiasian (right), Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

In other news, however, one of Levon Ter Petrosian’s key supporters, Khachatur Sukiasian, continues to face pressure for backing the former president. The businessman and MP, formerly known as Grzo, made most of his money under Ter Petrosian and is related through marriage to the first president’s notorious minister of the interior, Vano Siradeghian, who is still wanted by Interpol for a series of assassinations in the 1990s.

Armenian tax authorities launched a financial investigation into companies making up the Sukiasian family’s SIL Group in October shortly after he indicated his unwavering support for Ter-Petrosian and the latter’s return to power. Three of those companies were promptly charged with evading millions of dollars in taxes. Two of them, a pizza restaurant chain and a printing house, saw their chief executives arrested as part of a criminal investigation conducted by prosecutors.

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Sukiasian, who had become one of Armenia’s wealthiest men during Ter-Petrosian’s rule, made it clear that “nothing” will force him to defect from the ex-president’s camp. “I am prepared for everything,” he said. “I will be by Levon Ter-Petrosian’s side until the end, until our victory.”

A member of parliament, Sukiasian is the only Armenian millionaire businessman who has publicly pledged allegiance to Ter-Petrosian. The vast majority of other “oligarchs” are officially or unofficially affiliated with the governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK). Sukiasian claimed that many of them privately welcome the ex-president’s political comeback but are not expressing their sympathy in public for fear of losing their businesses.

For sure, although Sukiasian almost certainly has quite a few skeletons in his closet, the pressure on him is definitely being applied because of political considerations. Those oligarchs and businessmen who continue to support Kocharian and Sarkisian, for example, continue to evade taxes without any scrutiny of their books at all. Even so, in the latest developments, Sukiasian’s Armeconombank has been accused of fraud in a report broadcast on State-controlled Public TV.

In response, Sukiasian has said he will sue H1. RFE/RL reports that he is seeking $1.3 million in damages. No doubt we’ll hear more on this case in the coming days and especially on Saturday when Levon Ter Petrosian has another rally scheduled in Liberty Square at 3pm. Given that previous rallies were staged at 5pm on a Friday, it can be supposed that the number of those in attendance will be much larger than before.