Ter Petrosian Needs Hovannisian’s Support
Ask people who they will vote for in next year’s presidential election, or even whether they will vote at all, and you’ll get many different answers. Some say they will vote for Serzh Sarkisian because they want continuity while others say they will vote for Levon Ter Petrosian. However, there are also those who say that while they disike Kocharian and Sarkisian they will reluctantly vote for the latter to prevent Ter Petrosian from returning to power. In a sense, the former president’s public meetings in Liberty Square are an attempt to overturn the negative image that lingers from the days when corruption sky-rocketed, elections were falsified, and Armenians were left to endure winters without power.
And as seen by recent high profile meetings with some of those political parties and individuals who were once in opposition to him, Ter Petrosian badly needs the support of prominent opposition figures as well as that from former supporters now in positions of political and economic power. With Ter Petrosian seen as the first choice for president by only 5-6 percent of voters, in order to get into what looks likely to be a second round of the election, he needs more than just the support of minor radical opposition figures such as Nikol Pashinian, Aram Sarkisian, and the not-so-radical Stepan Demirchian. Probably, as mentioned by the Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement, he needs the support of popular figures such as Raffi Hovannisian.
For Levon Ter-Petrosyan winning Raffi Hovhanissian over is crucial: it’s a matter of securing a victory, or running the danger of not even getting into the second round. If Levon does not win over Raffi, the negative effects would be double if not triple: he will not only loose the Herritage Party’s electorate votes, but also loose it to another contender (HHD or Manukyan)… and that kind of formation could have a spiralling negative effect of disintegrating confidence in Levon camp. Ultimately, Raffi’s choice might be the deciding factor in determining who will be Serj Sarkisyan’s challenger in the second round.
I’m not sure I agree with the ALSM’s opinion that Hertiage support for Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian can be ruled out given that the two parties are the only opposition in parliament and they have cooperated with each other since the 12 May parliamentary election. I think this is especially true given that if Levon Ter Petrosian doesn’t make it through to a likely second round, it will probably be either a Dashnak candidate or Baghdasarian. Then, the opposition has no choice — to urge its supporters to vote against Serzh.
What makes the situation more difficult for Ter Petrosian is that he and his former foreign minister might still have significant differences over resolution of the Karabakh conflict, normalizing of ties with Turkey, and the role of the Diaspora in Armenia’s development.
Now, some might argue that Raffi’s stance on Artsakh is generally close (at least in spirit) to that of HHD (ARF-Dashnaks), but Raffi Hovhanissian might be well reluctant to support Vahan Hovhanissian (the Dashnak candidate). After all, there is a whole history of much more complex Diasporic politics as well as HHD’s open support and cooperation with Serj Sarkisyan (which the Diaspora overall is not particularly excited about, with the exception of few organizations). If, however, Levon does not manage to win Raffi over and see his support go for Dashnaks, that would be very damaging for Levon’s campaign, as well as for the country as a whole, since they would then be presented with a near-monolithic ruling ultra-conservative and ultra-nationalist HHK+HHD… and it won’t be 10 more years of the same… it will be 10 more years of the much worse…
Anyway, with Hovannisian considered the best choice for president by 13 percent of the electorate, his support is indeed crucial. Indeed, so too would be that of Vazgen Manukian and Artur Baghdasarian in the event of a second round. Because many Armenians say they would vote for Sarkisian if the alternative was Ter Petrosian, their involvement in his campaign would lessen the negative associations that still resonate. As the Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement rightly says, that will all depend on Ter Petrosian’s next meeting on Friday and actually, all subsequent ones.
If he plays his cards right and can manage to win the support of figures such as Hovannisian, not only will he stand a chance of making it through to a second round, but he will also manage to represent a real threat to the presidential ambitions of the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian.
The full post is here.
- Published:
- 12.02.07 / 11pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Diaspora, Nagorno Karabakh, Opinion, Opinion Polls, Turkey, Voting
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