Raffi Hovannisian’s Candidacy

RFE/RL reports that the U.S. born former foreign minister Heritage party leader, Raffi Hovannisian, is once again attempting to put forward his candidacy for the presidential election in Armenia early next year. However, as was the case in 2003, problems linger with his citizenship. Under the constitution, presidential candidates must be citizens of the Republic of Armenia for at least 10 years. Hovannisian was only granted his in 2001.

Hovannisian had been controversially barred by from contesting the previous presidential election on the grounds that he had not been an Armenian citizen for the previous ten years, something which is required by the country’s constitution. […]

Kocharian rejected at the time Hovannisian’s demand that his citizenship be backdated to 1991. The U.S.-born politician claimed that his repeated citizenship applications had been illegally ignored by Kocharian and his predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosian.

In a written appeal to Kocharian, Hovannisian’s Zharangutyun (Heritage) party stopped short of explicitly accusing the Armenian president of breaking the law, only urging him to “restore justice.” It also argued that Hovannisian had served as independent Armenia’s first foreign minister and is now one of the country’s most popular political figures.

“Based on the above-mentioned [arguments,] the Zharangutyun Party’s board expects him [Kocharian] to immediately reconsider and satisfy the public demand to grant Raffi K. Hovannisian citizenship effective from the declaration of the Republic,” the statement said.

Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

As previously mentioned on this blog, Hovannisian remains one of the most popular political figures in Armenia and during the May 2007 parliamentary election, his Heritage was one of only two opposition parties to enter the Armenian National Assembly. According to recent opinion polls, his popularity far exceeds that of former president Levon Ter Petrosian, so whether Hovannisian runs might have far reaching implications.

Ter-Petrosian has already called on Hovannisian, whom he had named foreign minister in late 1991 and sacked less than a year later, to endorse his presidential bid. Zharangutyun has not yet responded to the call.

Of course, even if Hovannisian’s call for his citizenship to be backdated that does not necessarily mean he will endorse Ter Petrosian’s candidacy. Indeed, having served only a short period of time as the first president’s Foreign Minister before being dismissed, differences over foreign policy might linger in addition to other concerns about Ter Petrosian’s time in power.

Such concerns were most notably voiced by veteran opposition politician, Vazgen Manukian, earlier in the week.

“These authorities must go and that is inevitable,” he said. “But who should replace them? I fear that we would get more of the same [with Ter-Petrosian’s return to power.]”

[…]

“They are putting the people in a very difficult situation because the majority of the people do not accept either party,” Manukian told a news conference. “There are people who consider Levon Ter-Petrosian the lesser evil but there are also many, many people who consider Serzh Sarkisian the lesser evil. And I don’t exclude that if Levon Ter-Petrosian and Serzh Sarkisian go into the second round Serzh Sarkisian will emerge as a legitimate president.”

But while we all appear to be on the list for unsolicited emails from Hovannisian’s Heritage party, the Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement has another idea connected to Ter Petrosian’s return to the political scene and the need for the opposition to unite around a common candidate. The site suggests that Ter Petrosian should eventually withdraw from the race and urge his supporters to vote for another candidate instead.

If Levon’s ultimate desire is to counter the existing regime rather then the pursuit of power and personal ambitions, then he should be able to find it within himself to be able to do this. This would be both an act of a admiting the mistakes and taking responsibility as a mature politician, who admits his mistakes and goes back in history to correct them - a proof that is expressed not in words and promises, but in action. This would also be an act of acknowledging his greatest mistake and the act of greatest injustice and brutality that he committed in 1996, which redefined the standards of what is acceptable political behaviour in Armenia; and which had put in motion the chain of events that brought the country to this political impasse. He must realise that his name is tarnished by many years of propaganda and history re-interpretation - some of his legacy and image is still recoverable, but most of that tarnish is beyond such recovery as to guarantee a decisive victory ( which is needed in the age when election frauds are a standard), while the future path of the country remains at stake.

While the Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement site suggests Ter Petrosian backing his old nemesis, Vazgen Manukian, the opposition candidate might just as well be any other. The main point for now, however, is that while the former president’s return has been remarkable, with many Armenians still holding him responsible for the socio-economic situation in the 1990s, it looks unlikely that he could ever gain enough votes even in a free and fair election.

Incidentally, my September 2005 interview with Raffi Hovannisian is here.

Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Rally, Opera, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2005