Overall, I have to compliment the party for not giving up and struggling further. If they persist, I might just as well vote for them.

“HERITAGE” APPLIES TO PRESIDENT KOCHARIAN

A1 Plus, 21 November, 2007
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Raffi Hovannisian has been applying for RA citizenship since 1991, the proclamation of Armenia’s independence. Eventually his cherished dreams came true. Raffi Hovannisian was granted citizenship in 2001.

Today, the Heritage Party issued the following statement,

Armenia is on the eve of presidential elections which will have their direct impact on the country’s statehood during the coming five years. Voters should be given freedom to make an unbiased choice.

Armenia’s president is entitled to restore justice and to provide equal footing during the presidential race.

The party voices hope that the President will reconsider the matter and satisfy public demand to grant Raffi Hovannisian citizenship driven by the declaration of independence.

Levon Ter-Petrosyanic zzvoghner:
http://www.facebook.com/s.php?k=100000004&id=7361831931&gr=2

Ironically, however, she’s a Heritage party supporter and says she will vote for Levon if the choice is between him and Serzh. However, she thinks that not much would change in Armenia as a result. Just that Serzh shouldn’t be president.

Nevertheless, I still think it’s too early to say for sure and a lot depends on a) the pre-election campaign period and b) which opposition candidate gets through to a likely second round and who does or doesn’t support him.

A.

“Aravot” analyzes opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian’s latest speech, saying it contained both “strong and weak” points. “In his speech Levon Ter-Petrosian correctly pointed out that the parliament has become a ‘spineless and wretched puppet’ but did not say that the National Assembly has been like that since 1995,” editorializes the paper. “It is that parliament [elected in 1995] which was first penetrated by semi-criminal elements. It is there that button-pressing individuals devoid of intellect first constituted an overwhelming majority.” The paper insists that both the current and former Armenian authorities have ignored voters’ opinion. “Ter-Petrosian has a lot of reason to repent on this issue,” it concludes.

[…]

“Azg” questions Ter-Petrosian’s assurances that his key aim is not to win back power but to turn Armenia into a democratic state. The paper is especially suspicious of his claims that he is not intent on bringing his entourage to power along with him. “If you are not saying who you are bringing to power and are saying instead that your cronies will hold no posts and that you will oust these [authorities], isn’t this nothing but adventurism and a bid to condemn the state and the people to anarchy and chaos? And if Ter-Petrosian is lying and wants to come to power with his supporters, it would be more honest to make that clear.”

Opposition leader Vazgen Manukian on Tuesday again ruled out the possibility of supporting former President Levon Ter-Petrosian in the forthcoming presidential election, saying that his longtime rival is not fundamentally different from Armenia’s current leaders.

“These authorities must go and that is inevitable,” he said. “But who should replace them? I fear that we would get more of the same [with Ter-Petrosian’s return to power.]”

Manukian, who himself plans to for run for president, indicated that he will not endorse Ter-Petrosian even if the February 19 election goes into a second round pitting the ex-president against Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. He expressed his readiness to back other opposition hopefuls and even the presidential candidate of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a junior partner in the governing coalition.

“They are putting the people in a very difficult situation because the majority of the people do not accept either party,” Manukian told a news conference. “There are people who consider Levon Ter-Petrosian the lesser evil but there are also many, many people who consider Serzh Sarkisian the lesser evil. And I don’t exclude that if Levon Ter-Petrosian and Serzh Sarkisian go into the second round Serzh Sarkisian will emerge as a legitimate president.”

“I think [Ter-Petrosian] should not have nominated his candidacy in the first place,” he said.

Basically, I think a lot now depends on Raffi Hovannisian. That is, if his candidacy is not accepted will he support Ter Petrosian, another opposition candidate such as Artur Baghdasarian or Vazgen Manukian, or urge a boycott.

Certainly, although a serious campaign might win support for Ter Petrosian, without the support of Hovannisian, Baghdasarian or Manukian, he stands no chance. The arguments about whether Ter Petrosian represents an alternative to the system he was partly responsible for creating are also valid.

Moreover, while those in civil society circles, for example, say they would vote for Levon, others do not. One young Heritage supporter, for example, said he would even vote for Serzh to prevent Ter Petrosian from coming back. Of course, another Heritage supporter says the opposite.

Nonetheless, contrary to popular [opposition] opinion that everyone without exception hates Sarkisian, I can believe that he could gain up to 40 percent in an election. Those votes would be based on two opinions — one out of suppport and the other because there is no alternative.

At the same time, the low attendance at Ter Petrosian’s rally does not indicate that he has anywhere near a significant amount of support in society. However, a proper campaign might change all that. As for the poll, while you dispute the wording, I still think it sounds plausible in terms of votes for candidates.

For example, it is apparently reported that 67 percent believe Sarkisian will win the election so I think the 38 percent probably refers to those who would vote for him. Also, I’d like to see what ComRes think about their own poll.

Anyway, given that most Armenians think Serzh will be the next president, the 38 percent figure in your conclusion and reading doesn’t make much sense, in my opinion. It’s too low, basically, and the 67 percent quoted above seems more likely.

Although less credible in terms of who is doing the polling, another poll put Sarkisian’s support at 32 percent. Either way, however, rather than think that the whole country is against him which is definitely not the case when the TV media is under his control, it’s perhaps better to look at the polls from another angle.

That is, there is anywhere from 60-70 percent of the population against him. This is the most important perhaps because as this post says, what will determine the outcome of the election will be a second round and who is the main opposition challenger.

Another issue is that turnout would not be more than 55 percent, so basically, I do believe that the opposition vote is split and that Serzh’s vote is less than what he needs to win, but that the campaign will determine a lot. This also means with regards to who gets through from the opposition.

BTW: From your IP address I know who you are.

ARMENIANS EXPECT SARKISIAN TO BECOME PRESIDENT

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28966/armenians_expect_sarkisian_to_become_president

Angus Reid Global Monitor, Canada
Nov 13 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Armenia foresee prime minister Serge Sarkisian winning next year’s presidential election, according to a poll by Communicate Research. 38 per cent of respondents think Sarkisian will become Armenia’s head of state.

Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovhannisian is second with 13 per cent, followed by National Assembly chairman Artur Baghdasaryan of the Rule of Law (OY) party with 12 per cent, Artashes Geghamyan of National Unity (AM) with eight per cent, former president Levon Ter Petrossian
with six per cent, and former prime minister Vazgen Manukyan with five per cent.

Polling Data

Who do you think would win if the presidential election were held this Sunday? (READ THIS QUESTION AGAIN!)

Serge Sarkisian 38%

Raffi Hovhannisian 13%

Artur Baghdasaryan 12%

Artashes Geghamyan 8%

Levon Ter Petrosyan 6%

Vazgen Manukyan 5%

Source: Communicate Research Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 Armenian adults, conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, 2007. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.