2008 Presidential Election Monitor
With the race to win the presidential election in Armenia scheduled now heating up, RFE/RL reports that four main opposition party leaders remain reluctant to support the bid by former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, to succeed the incumbent, Robert Kocharian. Significantly, their support might prove crucial in determining the outcome of the 19 February vote.
A senior member of the Orinats Yerkir Party, one of the two opposition groups represented in the National Assembly, told RFE/RL that its governing board will meet on Thursday to discuss Ter-Petrosian’s proposal. The Orinats Yerkir leader, former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, has long been harboring presidential ambitions and has until now ruled out the possibility of his withdrawal from the race in favor of another opposition contender.
A spokesman for the other opposition parliamentary party, Zharangutyun, said it can not respond to the offer because its U.S.-born leader Raffi Hovannisian is not in Armenia at the moment. Hovannisian and his allies insist that he is eligible to run for president despite not having been an Armenian citizen for the past ten years, something which is required by the country’s constitution. They say his repeated citizenship applications had been illegally ignored by Ter-Petrosian and the current President Robert Kocharian.
Artashes Geghamian, who was also a key opposition contender of the 2003 presidential ballot, responded coolly to Ter-Petrosian’s call, welcoming only the ex-president’s readiness to serve as a “tool” for regime change. “In that sense I find positive Levon Ter-Petrosian’s offer and readiness to serve the opposition,” he said. “As to how we will make use of that readiness, that will be discussed at a meeting of our party’s presidium.”
Vazgen Manukian, another opposition heavyweight who had been Ter-Petrosian’s main challenger in the troubled presidential election of September 1996, was even more dismissive of his erstwhile foe. “Candidates always make such offers. The trouble is that there is an element of blackmail in that offer,” he said.
Manukian also made it clear that he does not consider Ter-Petrosian an “alternative” to Kocharian or Sarkisian. He has repeatedly stated that he will contest the presidential election in any case.
Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007
Indeed, although Ter Petrosian’s supporters claim that the ex-president attracted 85,000 people to Yerevan’s Liberty Square last Friday, most independent observers put the number more like 10-15,000. And with opinion polls showing that Ter Petrosian is not the main choice of voters, his chances of making it through to a second round in the election are dependent on the support of others more popular than the minor parties supporting him at present.
If the poll was conducted this Sunday, 55% of the enfranchised would participate in it. 38% of the voters would cast their ballot in favor of Serge Sargsyan, 13% - for Raffi Hovhannisyan, 12%- for Arthur Baghdasaryan, 8% - Artashes Geghamyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 5% - Vazgen Manukyan, 4% - Gagik Tsarukyan and 4% - Vahan Hovhannisyan. Aram Karapetyan would receive 1%.
[…]
According to the survey results, Serge Sargsyan is the best presidential candidate to deal with the problems Armenia faces. 28% consider he can best solve the issue of unemployment. 20% think Arthur Baghdasaryan can solve it. 19% trust Raffi Hovhannisyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan and 3% - Armen Rustamyan.
If such polls are correct, it currently looks as though the election would have to go to a second round with Serzh Sarkisian and a candidate other than Ter Petrosian making it through. However, it is uncertain as to whether Hovannisian can run given that he does not meet the citizen requirement of ten years to do so. If that remains the case, his support for an opposition candidate might ultimately determine which of the three opposition candidate heavyweights gets through.
Artur Baghdasarian, Polling Station, Nork, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007
Interestingly, Hovannisian has met with the former president although no details as to what was discussed has emerged. Until it does, it will be interesting to discover if Ter Petrosian’s U.S.-born former foreign minister will back the former president or choose to advise Heritage party supporters to instead vote for the leader of their opposition colleagues in parliament, Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian.
Armenia’s former president Levon Ter-Petrosian met with opposition Heritage party leader Raffi Hovannisian on Thursday in a move that many viewed as an effort to secure the latter’s support for his declared presidential run.
[…]
In a media release later in the day the Heritage party said that during the meting Hovannisian and Ter-Petrosian “exchanged analyses on the republic’s domestic concerns, diplomatic challenges, and political developments in the run-up to the forthcoming presidential elections.”
The party’s political secretary Vartan Khachatrian, who also attended the meeting, told RFE/RL that no issue of the two politicians’ joint efforts or Raffi Hovannisian’s participation in the Ter-Petrosian rally scheduled for November 16 were discussed.
“There was a general discussion of the problems facing the country and the electoral process in general,” Khachatrian said. He added that the two sides had agreed to ensure maximum ‘correctness’ throughout the political process and, if necessary, meet for consultations in the future.
Raffi Hovannisian, Polling Station, Nork, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007
Meanwhile, now that the prime minister and election favorite Serzh Sarkisian has responded to criticism of his government, accusing him of being ready to “sell-out” Nagorno Karabakh, The Armenian Observer is not impressed with either.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s a pity that Serge Sargsyan decides for himself “what to say and what suggestions to make”, because when he does it, it’s usually not coherent (remember the lapse about Armenians being the easternmost Christian nation in the world?).
We were just discussing the recent speeches with my collegue, Ashot Melikyan, the Chairman of the Committee to Protect Freedom of Speech, and he was remembering, how, Levon Ter-Petrossian spoke about freedom of speech in the times of his rule, whereas ARF-Dashnaktsutyun 13 media outlets were shut down during his time for their political orientation.
[…]
It really is a pity, that the quality of political debate is so low in Armenia, and it seems, that issues will once again be the last thing on candidates minds when campaigning for the 2008 Presidential election.
In other news, TV stations have announced the prices for political advertising during the pre-election campaign period.
Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007
- Published:
- 11.20.07 / 5pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Blogs, Candidates, Media, Parties, Photojournalism
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