A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

On the eve of tomorrow’s opposition rally in Yerevan’s Liberty Square where the former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, is due to hold his second public rally, I was getting ready to urge some caution in assessing his chances of becoming the main opposition challenger to the prime minister’s presidential bid. Agreed, despite possessing the ability to unite some of the opposition, people still remember his time in power. And while activists in civil society circles might welcome his return — some albeit reluctantly — many others don’t.

If anything, tomorrow actually represented the opportunity for Ter Petrosian to address outstanding criticisms of his regime, something that the meeting is intended to achieve, and to start to build on attracting a following in Armenia. To be honest, such a task wouldn’t be easy with the majority of Armenians believing that the outcome of February’s presidential election is already decided or that there is no alternative to the prime minister. For the radical opposition to prove otherwise would probably have been an uphill struggle.

Some independent observers recognize this, and you would have thought the government might as well, but no. A1 Plus reports that the authorities instead go and do something like this:

The construction of the stage in the Liberty Square for 17 November Dima Bilan’s concert is in the process. The stage equipments cover the main territory of the Square. Besides the main stage, another smaller stage is installed right in the center of the Square, which is foreseen for stage lighting.

Following the preparations for the concert, one thinks of tomorrows gathering. Where will the participants of the gathering stand?

We should remind that tomorrow on 16 November at 17 p.m. a gathering will be held with the participation of the RA First President in the Liberty Square.

Yes, that’s right. Despite it being the middle of November when it’s cold and prone to rain, a stage constructed for a free pop concert sponsored by the ruling Republican party will actually interfere with the ability of the opposition to hold their rally. If ever the government wanted to hand the former president something on a plate, this is it. By acting in such a way they are making it more likely that Ter Petrosian will be seen by those against the government as the only opposition candidate able to contest the election.

Stupidity is not the word to describe such an action although I’m sure the Yerevan municipality and the ruling Republican party are convinced that they are being clever. For outside observers such as myself, however, such petty attempts to disrupt the right to freedom of assembly combined with a campaign of black PR against Ter Petrosian is more likely to achieve the opposite. It will also convince the opposition, and perhaps even the public, that Ter Petrosian poses a real threat to Sarkisian’s presidential ambitions.

The Council of Europe and other observers of the electoral process in Armenia might also shake their heads in disappointment and disbelief at such an infantile attempt to disrupt a meeting where most of the people might be there just out of curiosity. Combined with news that a pro-Ter Petrosian youth activist was severely beaten and hospitalized for handing out anti-Sarkisian leaflets and it has to be said that the authorities are their own worst enemy. Such acts are a sign of weakness and not strength or confidence, and the opposition will surely thrive and grow more resolute.

Narek Galstian, the 20-year-old leader of the youth league of the Social Democrat Hnchankian Party (SDHK), and other Ter-Petrosian loyalists were quick to accuse the Armenian authorities of orchestrating the attack. They claimed that it is part of an ongoing campaign of government “repressions” against supporters of the resurgent ex-president.

Lying on his hospital bed, Galstian told RFE/RL that a taxi carrying him was blocked by another car as it drove through a northern Yerevan suburb in the morning. He said three young then got out of the car and began punching and kicking him.

“They apparently also used a blunt object,” he said. “One of them said, ‘If you tell anything to newspapers, I’ll kill you next time.’ But I told them that I will keep speaking up. I promise the people who did it that they will never manage to intimidate me.”

According to the RFE/RL report, Galstian says that he recognized one of the men who attacked him although another report by A1 Plus appears to contradict that given that his father is quoted as saying they wore masks. Nevertheless, Galstian was beaten — another sign of weakness from the authorities. Instead, if they had just let the democratic process run its course without interference it is more likely that the percentage of support for Ter Petrosian would remain in single digits as a recent opinion poll conducted by a British organization showed.

According to RFE/RL’s Press Review, it’s a point not lost on Azg.

“Azg” says the authorities would be “terrified” of a presidential candidate representing the entire opposition camp. Even if that candidate is Ter-Petrosian. “Our opposition leaders do not want to understand this,” says the paper. “Under the guise of toppling the regime, they do more harm to one another, paving the way for the process of the ruling regime’s reproduction.”

What Azg perhaps fails to realize, however, is that running scared of a perceived threat, which might never actually materialize in a democratic election, can work against the authorities as well. Conversations with students and others, for example, indicate that Ter Petrosian can count on little support at present. However, by creating the image of an opponent to be reckoned with, as their actions ironically achieve, their fears instead run the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.