Opinion: Levon Ter-Petrosian as a Tool of Armenia’s Destabilisation

As the radical opposition prepares for this Friday’s rally by former president Levon Ter Petrosian, during which he is said to be ready to respond to four outstanding criticisms of his regime in the 1990s, IntelliBriefs has posted an article explaining why many consider he has a lot to account for. The article also says that Ter Petrosian has limited support in society, something that opinion polls even from foreign organizations seem to indicate.

As in the parliamentary election when the radical opposition showed no sign of campaigning and instead braced itself for street protests that never materialized, the analysis concludes that coming to power through revolution and not democratic elections is the agenda of the Ter Petrosian team. Certainly, while there is support for Ter Petrosian among a sizable section of civil society, most of the population remains detached or supports other candidates.

A long awaited happening, the interest to which had been fanned for months, took place in Armenia. On October 26, 2007 former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, currently an actual leader of Armenian National Movement (ANM), the former ruling party made a 90-minute speech in Theatre Square in Yerevan. Despite quite a few logical discrepancies, pseudo-historic excursions, dubious allusions and populist declarations he declared his intention to run for presidency in February of 2008. Many people attended the meeting, but those who are still sincerely fond of the former president were evidently in the minority. There were many people who were there out of sheer curiosity and those who are always displeased with any acting authority.

On the eve of the meeting radical opposition from the pro-Western movement “Alternative” provoked clashes with police, which were immediately taken advantage of for the stirring up the situation, given that usually the authorities do not prevent their opposition from holding meetings, asking them to observe the law and order. Some Armenian media characterise the tactics used by the ex-president and his supporters as the willingness “to aggravate the internal situation, forcing the authorities to make another mistake at any cost.” Unsanctioned meetings, office capture raids and blocking the bodies of state, stirring up of domestic disorder and interference in the work of election commissions can be disguised as “spontaneous” people’s protest. […]

The tonality of many statements of “the soft intellectual” Ter-Petrosian proves that the new election campaign will be quite acute. Again, as in the late 1980s, when Ter-Petrosian was desperate about gaining power, the wedge of a slogan “Struggle, struggle till the end!” has been forced in. But the fact that the “mafia-type clan regime” is criticised by none other than the genuine architect of this regime, is amusing. Ter-Petrosian’s call for bringing order to the nation looks especially mocking, given that the destruction of Armenia’s economy and key elements of its infrastructure (except for, maybe, the young national army) during his stint was systemic and targeted.

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The 1996 presidential elections were openly falsified to give the victory to Ter-Petrosian; opposition was suppressed never stopping of using tanks. In 1997, when the setoff between Ter-Petrosian on the one hand and other members of the political and military establishment on the other became evident, it was exactly the presidential side that resorted to a political combination aimed at the removal of the president’s opponents from the bodies of power. Attempts to provoke a political crisis by way of a series of acts of terror leading the way to a dismissal of prime-minister (Robert Kocharian) or the Minister of Interior and Security (Serge Sarkisian)met with the hard public opposition of Defence Minister Vazgen Sarkisian.

And in 1999, shortly before his tragic death, speaking at parliament prime-minister Vazgen Sarkisian said to the nation that the energy crisis was not a result of the Karabakh war. To quote the documents of the interim parliamentary committee that investigated abuse of power at the time: “2058 railway cars with 115,000 tonnes of fuel oil shipped to the Razdan and Yerevan power stations in 1992 were not registered, as well as 1184 tank-cars at the Razdan power station (66,000 tonnes) and 874 tank-cars at the Yerevan power station (49,000 tonnes)…

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Ter-Petrosian’s chances of winning the election are as good as nil. According to serious observers, in reality he can only count on the support of not more than a fraction of several percents of the electorate. His only hope is provoking meetings in the streets, pumping up destructive emotions, provoking dissent in the armed forces and law enforcement agencies and what is more dangerous, fanning parochial sentiment (for example, using the scenario of Aiastan – Karabakh setoff), the distinguishing feature of Ter-Petrosian’s “leadership” (especially in the last period of his presidency). Such event would inevitably throw the country back to late 1980s, the period of general upheaval, revolution-like street meetings that pushed him up to the top of presidential power in 1991. Such upheavals spell no good whatever.

Well, others believe that it possible for Ter Petrosian to attract enough votes as a united opposition candidate, but that he will need more than just the support of minor (but radical) parties such as Impeachment, Republic and even the People’s Party. He will also need the support of possible and potential presidential candidates such as Vazgen Manukian, Artur Baghdasarian, and Raffi Hovannisian. Anyway, while many pro-opposition youth activists say they will vote for Ter Petrosian, I’ve heard as many students say they will not vote at all simply because they dislike the choices on offer.

Some, however, say they will vote for the prime minister. Others are against the very idea of the first president returning to power.

Anyway, despite Ter Petrosian’s supporters saying that Ter Petrosian has nothing to answer for, many undecided voters and independent observers appear to believe the opposite. Indeed, the title of Friday’s rally appears to suggest that Ter Petrosian knows full well that in order to gain the support of those opposed to Sarkisian’s ascendancy he has no choice but to. In a few days time we’ll know to what extent he proves successful in that endeavor, and only then can we analyze whether he stands a chance in the election.

The full article by Andrei Areshev is here.