2008 Presidential Election Monitor

While Yerevan prepares for another opposition meeting in Liberty Square this Friday it would appear that the role of blogs and the media in Armenia is becoming clearly defined. While both the pro-opposition and pro-government media take on the role of propagandizing for their preferred candidates, bloggers are asking more awkward questions of both sides. One of those bloggers is Artmika at Unzipped.

Friends report from Yerevan that there are leaflets all over the capital inviting people for a (second) mass rally by ex-President and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan on 16 November. The main expectation of people who plan to go to the rally is that Levon at last will answer to the criticism over his period of presidency. They hope to hear his reflection over such issues as corruption, 1996 presidential elections (which many consider was a green light to all subsequent election frauds), Karabakh and so on. People expect and hope. Will Ter-Petrosyan deliver? We have to wait and see.

Meanwhile, as the pro-government media attacks Ter Petrosian for his time in power, some media outlets once considered “independent” are becoming more and more pro-opposition. One of those publications is Hetq Online, whose English/Translation editor is the wife of Ter Petrosian’s right hand man, former foreign minister, Alexander Arzumanian.

While many ordinary Armenians consider that Ter Petrosian should explain why they were forced to endure extreme hardships in the early to mid-90s while members of his government prospered, or why tanks were sent out onto the streets during his controversial 1996 re-election, Hetq Online’s Tigran Paskevichian takes it upon himself to answer for the former first president instead.

A large number of people who have reservations about the candidacy of the founding President of the Republic say that in order to return to politics and receive the vote of the people, Levon Ter-Petrosyan must ask for forgiveness.

This is one of the prevailing clichés that people repeat constantly - often without entertaining any doubt as to the correctness and fairness of what they say. In other words, those who hold this view want Ter-Petrosyan to admit the dubious facts that have been circulated by his political opponents over the last fifteen years without lifting a finger to determine their objective and subjective sides.

[…]

Equally popular is the issue of his “entourage”, and even today many people are ready to vote for Ter-Petrosyan provided that he renounces or estranges himself from his former entourage. This accusation was put into circulation in the early years of independence mainly by the Soviet nomenklatura. Those who had led the Communist party and state apparatus had lost their positions due to a concatenation of circumstances and, unable to find a place in the new times and the new reality, they took revenge upon the “new people” by smearing them.

[…]

The only exception was Vano Siradeghyan, and the only witness (who was also the perpetrator of the crime he was witness to) in the case fabricated against Siradeghyan was set free before the end of his sentence after Siradeghyan left the country and made head of one of Robert Kocharyan’s regional election offices.

[…]

Those who insist that before returning to politics Ter-Petrosyan must ask for forgiveness from the people are not only refusing to remember the past, to compare or confront the facts, but also have not understood the moral value of his resignation. […]

Unfortunately, Paskevichian’s item was not identified as an opinion piece and it seems strange that a journalist has decided to answer for the first and former president instead. It also has to be asked whether the publication has violated its own code of ethics.

[…]

# To differentiate information from commentary

# To clearly distinguish in publications between facts and commentaries

[…]

# Not to be affected by political and financial influences and pressures

# Not to be a member of a political party, not to get involved in politics, not to hold public office

[…]

# To avoid having close personal relations with public officials. Our personal and professional conduct should not cast doubt on confidence in our newspaper and our profession

Artmika later responds to Paskevichian article in the comments section of his original post:

A disappointing writing from Tigran Paskevichyan whom I consider good journalist. More like a ‘propaganda’ piece than proper analysis. I hope that Levon will be able to provide more solid answers.

Another interesting thought. Did you notice that neither Levon, nor Robert/Serj & co do not mention one of the most serious allegations against Levon presidency – 1996 elections. I do not really expect Levon to admit any fraud because it would be a criminal offence, but he has to provide some kind of explanations. But what is more interesting is that our authorities in their all anti-Levon hysteria do not mention this either, but rather concentrate on populist statements on dark days etc. Why would they – Serj was the Minister of the National Security back then…

Meanwhile, RFE/RL reports that the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, has been nominated as the presidential candidate for the ruling Republican party. Despite not making the same criticism of radical opposition rallies during the May parliamentary election and Ter Petrosian’s recent 26th October rally where issues and strategies were also not discussed, the news item implies that Sarkisian’s speech lacked substance.

With Sarkisian long seen as President Robert Kocharian’s preferred successor, the four-hour congress was expected to be a mere formality. As was the case during the previous HHK gatherings, there were no discussions on key issues facing Armenia and the party’s electoral strategy and tactics. The only visible novelty this time around was the presence of shapely fashion models who helped 650 or so delegates find their seats in a sports arena in Yerevan that served as the congress venue.

[…]

In his Saturday speech, Sarkisian acknowledged that bribery, nepotism and other corrupt practices are widespread in Armenia. He indicated that if elected president, he will make sure that businessmen and other wealthy individuals close to the government do not get away with enriching themselves by illegal means.

“Tax evasion and corruption must be regarded as a disgraceful and condemnable phenomenon,” said Sarkisian. “We must not take into account family ties and friendship and must not regard as friends and supporters those people who will avoid paying taxes and tolerate this vicious phenomenon.”

Ironically, despite RFE/RL’s criticism, The Armenian Observer instead accuses Sarkisian of populism and quotes him as saying that education, housing and other items or services are vital for each Armenian family. Regardless, both conclude that Ter Petrosian is now seen as the main opponent in next February’s vote. The blog also sounds a note of alarm now that the Chairperson of the Central Elections Commission, Garegin Azaryan, has said that the election will be “free and fair like the previous ones.”

[…] I’m somewhat concerned about that phrase: “like the previous ones”. While I acknowledge, that the 2007 Parliamentary elections were “free and fair” in relative terms, I can’t see what other “free and fair” elections the CEC chairman means looking back at the 15+ years of independent Armenia’s history? And considering all the economic pressures in the shape of tax inspections against LTP supporter MP Khachatur Sukiasyan and Gala TV which is simply trying to carry out independent editorial policy, I don’t see how will the upcoming Presidential elections come even close to being free and fair?

Incidentally, other alarm bells are also being sounded. Following on from last week’s clashes between opposition supporters and police in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, RFE/RL warns that Armenia could be next. In particular it refers to this Friday’s rally scheduled to be held by Ter Petrosian. Interestingly, despite independent observers putting attendance at Ter Petrosian’s last rally at 10-15,000, with RFE/RL’s own Armenia Service saying 20,000, they’re now using a figure of 30,000.

For Russians and Armenians, Kyrgyz, Ukrainians and Belarusians, the televised images of Tbilisi’s antigovernment protests, police clampdowns and last-minute political concessions have proved riveting viewing. They have also prompted questions about whether their own leaders will use, or misuse, the controversial example set by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili during the past seven days.

[…]

Such concerns are vivid in Armenia, where authorities are bracing for a major antigovernment demonstration on 16 November. The Armenian opposition held a 30,000-strong rally last month that made vocal calls for the resignation of President Robert Kocharian.

The meeting passed without violence, but opposition figures fear the crackdown in Georgia and the relatively mild criticism it has generated abroad may embolden local authorities to grab their own truncheons and declare a state of emergency.

“All this is expected in Armenia too,” said Aram Karapetian, the leader of the New Times opposition party. “If elections are rigged, people will take to the street and then the same measures will be imposed here. What happened in Georgia is very important. What Saakashvili has done is unforgivable.”

Armenian voters are due to elect a new president on 19 February, and tensions are running high. Armenia already has a strong track record of summary arrests, clampdowns on independent media, and heavy-handed treatment of demonstrators. In April 2004, riot police used tear gas, water cannons, and truncheons to disperse a large antigovernment rally outside parliament. They raided the offices of opposition parties, smashing furniture and detaining political opponents.

A state of emergency and all the restrictions it entails could do considerably more damage to democracy in Armenia than in Georgia, which is further down the road than many post-Soviet countries in implementing democratic reforms.

True enough, but while the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, is renowned for impulsive and emotional outbursts and wrong decisions much to the chagrin of the United States and Europe, the authorities in Armenia have so far been more skillful in deflecting criticism from abroad. Even so, it’s worth pointing out that last month, the U.S. Embassy in Armenia issued a warning to its citizens, advising them to steer clear of Ter Petrosian’s last rally.

For now, I’m not expecting any trouble unless the opposition decide to march, but I’ve also learned one thing here in Armenia. Basically, always prepare for the unexpected.



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