2008 Presidential Election Monitor

Now that the date for next year’s presidential election in Armenia has been set for 19 February 2008, the race to succeed the incumbent president who is not eligible to seek a third consecutive term in office is on. The election looks set to be quite unlike any other with Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter Petrosian, having already declared his intention to run against the most probable front-runner, the prime minister.

Armenian Public Radio, for example, reports the findings of one poll that suggests Serzh Sarkisian holds a commanding lead over potential rivals. However, while most Armenians believe he will be the next president of the Republic of Armenia, far less say they would actually vote for him. This makes the imminent pre-election campaign all the more interesting.

67% of the Armenian population is confident that the leader of the Republican Party of Armenia, Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan will win the forthcoming presidential elections. This is evidenced by the public opinion poll conducted by the British ComRes organization.

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If the poll was conducted this Sunday, 55% of the enfranchised would participate in it. 38% of the voters would cast their ballot in favor of Serge Sargsyan, 13% - for Raffi Hovhannisyan, 12%- for Arthur Baghdasaryan, 8% - Artashes Geghamyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 5% - Vazgen Manukyan, 4% - Gagik Tsarukyan and 4% - Vahan Hovhannisyan. Aram Karapetyan would receive 1%.

Most of the respondents - 63% - do not believe that the opposition will get united. Only 19% hope for this.

According to the survey results, Serge Sargsyan is the best presidential candidate to deal with the problems Armenia faces. 28% consider he can best solve the issue of unemployment. 20% think Arthur Baghdasaryan can solve it. 19% trust Raffi Hovhannisyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan and 3% - Armen Rustamyan.

The poll’s findings are pretty much in line with another recent survey conducted by Gallup which asked respondents for their opinion on the situation in the country. As reported by Armenia Now, 32 percent of Armenians said they thought the economy was improving while only 27 percent said it was not. Interestingly, 38 percent — the same number the other poll said would vote for Sarkisian — said they thought Armenia was heading in the right direction.

Nevertheless, analyzing the ComRes poll also reveals another reality. While leading his potential rivals if they were all to stand in the election, Sarkisian does not have enough support to win the presidential election in a first round. Moreover, if the election were to make it to a second round where the prime minister would have to run against only one candidate, the poll indicates that 57 percent of respondents would actually vote for an opposition candidate.

Of course, opinions change and that after all is what election campaigns are about when the campaign officially starts. It’s also why it is necessary for the opposition in Armenia to unite behind one common candidate and not to let petty rivalries and personal ambitions get in the way. Kocharian’s main opposition contender in the 2003 presidential election is reported by A1 Plus to have said the same today.

The opposition should name a joint presidential nominee otherwise they will lose the election,” People’s Party (HZhK) leader Stepan Demirchian told A1+ November 9.

The HZhK leader will not run for presidency.

The party hasn’t decided yet which candidate to second. “Levon Ter-Petrossian has a great potential of reconciliation. Many political forces and intelligentsia representatives back the former president which testifies to Demirchian’s speculations.

“Ter-Petrossian is a strong candidate. I think the presidential race will be between a pro-government candidate and Ter-Petrossian. He has brought freshness to the political sphere after ten years’ silence.

Stepan Demirchian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Indeed, although given a wider range of choices other opposition candidates might be the first choice of many Armenian voters, many believe that Levon Ter Petrosian is the only figure that could gain the support of most opposition political parties and their supporters. He is also widely believed to have some support among the economic and political elite in the country. This is probably why Ter Petrosian continues to hold meetings with pretty much every political group in the country.

On Thursday it was the turn of his former foreign minister, now leader of the opposition Heritage party, Raffi Hovannisian.

“There will be official information,” Ter-Petrosian assured RFE/RL when asked to present the results of his 90-minute meeting with Hovannisian at the latter’s Armenian Center for National and International Studies in Yerevan.

Ter-Petrosian only showed a thumb-up sign when asked to comment on whether the meeting with the ex-foreign minister he fired in 1992 was successful or not.

Armenia’s another ex-foreign minister Alexander Arzumanian, who accompanied Ter-Petrosian at the meeting, was not immediately available for comment.

In a media release later in the day the Heritage party said that during the meting Hovannisian and Ter-Petrosian “exchanged analyses on the republic’s domestic concerns, diplomatic challenges, and political developments in the run-up to the forthcoming presidential elections.”

Some opposition newspapers are already getting a little carried away.

“Zhamanak Yerevan” writes that if the “historical” meeting between ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosian and ex-foreign minister Raffi Hovannisian planned for Thursday passes well and Hovannisian appears on the stage at the opposition rally scheduled for November 16 next to opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian and Aram Sarkisian, then “we can state that the idea of the opposition consolidation has been partly realized.”

“It will become rather complicated to oppose the union of four heavyweight politicians and the chances of Ter-Petrosian as a presidential candidate will grow. We think that the next target of President Robert Kocharian and [Public Television’s news program] Haylur will be Raffi [Hovannisian], whom, however, it will be difficult to portray as ‘embittered opposition’ left outside parliament,” the paper comments.

Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Rally, Opera, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2005

However, others, including some pro-opposition newspapers as well as civil society and political activists, still consider that Ter Petrosian is responsible for the less than democratic and highly corrupt nature of the “system” in place in Armenia.

“Azg” reminds its readers that Armenia was considered ‘an island of democracy’ in the South Caucasus in the early 1990s. “But do not let us forget, however, that the name of the founder and the butcher of that island is Levon Ter-Petrosian. Therefore, it would have been right if the ex-president had started his lengthy speech after many years of silence by at least admitting the mistakes made during the years of his presidency. Many had expected self-criticism from Ter-Petrosian who emerged from political obscurity. But they heard only criticism of the incumbents. And let’s not forget that democracy in Armenia finally vanished in the wake of the 1996 elections under the tanks brought into the Yerevan streets by Ter-Petrosian to quell the protests.”

Meanwhile, while it’s too early to say who would win the presidential election if the vote was conducted more freely and fairly in the past, all attention appears to remain on Ter Petrosian ahead of his second public rally planned for next Friday. Interestingly, the 62-year-old leader is reported to have also met privately with youth from around the country.

“Hayots Ashkhar” writes on the same meeting: “The former president’s meeting with youths at Armenia Marriott Hotel on Saturday was not something unexpected. It is not a secret for anyone that without even a slim chance to win the election, the leaders of the liberation movement have to take the way of ‘colored revolutions’. And such revolutions are impossible to make without active participation of the youth.”

It remains to be seen how the Sksela youth movement will involve itself in the vote early next year. However, I think many suspect that the group was set up for one reason and one reason only. Time will tell, and soon enough, in fact.