2008 Presidential Election Monitor

RFE/RL reports that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) has strongly criticized the speech made by former president Levon Ter Petrosian last week. The party probably has more grounds than most to speak out against the first president given that they were banned for part of his rule with many of their senior leaders and activists imprisoned.

Hrant Markarian, the de facto head of the nationalist party’s worldwide governing body, also insisted that Ter-Petrosian stands no chance of winning next year’s presidential election. He said Armenians are unhappy with their current and former rulers and only trust third forces like Dashnaktsutyun.

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“I very much want Levon Ter-Petrosian to stand in the elections,” Markarian told RFE/RL in an interview. “If the past 17 years have not been enough to make him a realist, then let him run and find his real place in this society.”

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Markarian stressed that while his party agrees that the Armenian government’s “policy of economic monopolization has reached its climax” it believes that the root causes of this and other fundamental problems facing the country date back to Ter-Petrosian’s 1991-1998 presidency. “That speech could have been somewhat convincing if he had started it by evaluating his years [in power,]” he said.

Dashnaktsutyun was bitterly opposed to Ter-Petrosian throughout that period, resenting his liberal economic policies and what it saw as a soft line on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey. Ter-Petrosian controversially banned the party in 1994, accusing it violating Armenia’s laws and running a secret death squad. The ban was lifted shortly after his dramatic resignation in 1998. Dashnaktsutyun has since been among the most loyal allies of his successor, Robert Kocharian.

Markarian, who was among Dashnaktsutyun leaders jailed by the Ter-Petrosian administration, claimed that the ex-president suggested no remedies to right the wrongs mentioned in his speech. “His speech contained [words like] destroy, break up, eliminate,” he said. “But there was nothing on what to create.”

“Only a person detached from reality for ten years could make such a speech. You can’t change anything in this country by means of extremism,” he added.

Interestingly, the long standing rivalry between Ter Petrosian and the ARF-D gives one blogger from the Diaspora at least a little bit of hope. Tamar at Life in Armenia says that competition between the two might bring some hope back into Armenian politics.

I’m not expressing my own political views by bringing this up… I’m saying that having Ter-Petrossian and a Tashnak candidate (among others maybe) run for the presidency is good for political pluralism, competition and choice for the people. I will attend every rally and meeting I can just to learn more about how the electoral process is shaping up here in Armenia. […] Do I sound naive?? If so, that’s okay, because I’m still learning. Frankly, I don’t have enough knowledge to say who I think should be the next president of Armenia, but I can say that any movement towards a more representative democracy is good, and so my optimism has been at least partially revived for now.

A non-Armenian living in the country also blogs about Friday’s rally giving us a much needed “outside view” of proceedings. The reaction is largely positive, but reports that the crowd was not as enthusiastic for Ter Petrosian’s return as his supporters would have us believe.

On Friday, purely out of curiosity, I went to observe a political rally on Freedom square. The opposition parties declared their common support for Levon Ter-Petrosian and after a one-and-a-half hour speech he declared his candidacy for the presidential elections in February. The square in front of the opera filled up with people, different news reports gives estimates ranging from 10 000 to 20 000 people present.

I did not understand much of the speeches, since they all were in Armenian. I could simply observe the crowd. Judging from their faces, without smiles or much expression at all, I guess most of them were there out of curiosity rather than a burning political engagement for the speakers. But there were also a large number of people towards the front waving big Armenian flags and cheering whenever the speaker reached the many peaks of his speech.

EurasiaNet also weighs into the argument with what is perhaps the most balanced article I’ve seen yet. It details both the pros and cons of Ter Petrosian’s return as well as the deep divisions and confusion it will likely create in Armenian society. I can’t disagree with anything written here.

Charisma, intellect and hands-on experience are the attributes used to tout Ter-Petrosian, yet no opinion polls have been taken on how voters compare these attributes with those of Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the government’s projected presidential candidate. Aharon Adibekian, the head of the independent polling center Sociometer, said that a survey run in January 2007 gave the former president a “rather low” assessment, but added that “everything is still ahead and we cannot draw a conclusion yet.” Polls on the question are expected “in the near future,” he said.

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The October 26 demonstration at which Ter-Petrosian announced his candidacy arguably marked the beginning of a new period for the opposition, elaborated one rank-and-file supporter. “I think that was an historical moment,” translator Hakob Mkrtchian said. “We have waited long for him to return to politics. I think his statement opened a new page in Armenia’s dull political life.” Sixty-year-old doctor Laura Harutiunian agreed. With a candidate that has “the respect of many intellectuals,” she said, voters can “finally make a choice.”

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For many voters, […] Ter-Petrosian’s rule from 1991 to 1998 is identified with the simultaneous crises of war, economic depression and electricity shortages — a combination that brought the newly independent state to the brink of collapse. Pro-government media has been touting roughly the same line for the past month, with regular television programs and pro-government newspaper commentaries reexamining the difficulties of the early post-Soviet period.

“Why do I need Ter-Petrosian’s return [to power]?” asked Yerevan taxi driver Artush Mkrtchian. “Are we so satisfied with our life today that we want to return to the dark and cold years?”

Attacking the government will do little to change that impression, argues parliamentarian Armen Ashotian of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia. “We don’t see Levon Ter-Petrosian as a new fresh force and, in fact, there is nothing new in what he says.”

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To political analyst Iskandarian, though, Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian are evenly matched. “The struggle will be not only between the two ideologies, between the two figures, but between two methods of struggle,” he said. “What is important is which of the two the public will believe.”

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Meanwhile, the mainstream print media continues to dwell on Ter Petrosian’s return to the political arena although somewhat interestingly, not all pro-opposition newspapers appear to welcome him back with open arms. Perhaps as a sign of new divisions among opponents of the government appear, this is especially true for one pro-opposition newspaper, Azg.

“Azg” looks at “political consequences” of the nomination of Levon Ter-Petrosian’s presidential candidacy. “A people who saw the inhuman life style of Ter-Petrosian’s rule, a people who also saw the injustice of Robert Kocharian’s rule are now facing a dilemma which can only cause alarm,” writes the paper. “It is awful to hear mutual recriminations between the former and current rulers which only torment the ordinary citizen … into thinking that he has, in essence, to choose between these two camps.”

According to “Aravot,” the Armenian authorities are interested in seeing as many opposition candidates run for president as possible. The paper says those opposition who stand no chance of winning the presidential vote but will still decide to enter the fray will be playing into the regime’s hands.

“Hayots Ashkhar” seeks to disprove Ter-Petrosian’s statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying that his gloomy forecasts made in 1997-1998 have proved to be false. “Because over the past ten years Ter-Petrosian’s calculations and forecasts have fortunately not become a reality, it is obvious that his current political bid becomes unsubstantiated, turning into a primitively opportunistic desire to return to power,” says the paper.

Via Unzipped, RSF condemns the arrest of two newspaper editors on 23rd October during a scuffle with police while distributing leaflets to announce Friday’s rally marking the return of former president Levon Ter Petrosian to politics as well as his candidacy in the 2008 presidential election. Freed in the early hours, RSF calls upon the Armenian government to drop the charges against the two opposition newspaper editors.

Reporters Without Borders condemns the arrest of two opposition newspaper editors - Nikol Pashinian of Haykakan Jamanak and Shoger Matevossian of Chorrord Ishkhanutiun - along with some 10 supporters of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian during an opposition march in Erevan on 23 October.

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According to the Yerevan Press Club, the police confiscated the camera of photographer David Jalalian of the newspaper Haik when he went to the police station where the opposition members were being held. The camera was finally returned but some of his photos had been deleted by the police.

RFE/RL, however, reports that despite the RSF condemnation and plea, the two editors and three other opposition activists have now been formerly charged.

The activists were summoned to the police department of Yerevan’s central Kentron district for questioning. Only one of them, Shogher Matevosian of the pro-opposition “Chorrord Ishkhanutyun’ newspaper, promptly went there to find out that she has been charged with assaulting a policeman during the incident.

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The oppositionists, most of them leaders of the radical Aylentrank (Alternative) movement, say that the march was sanctioned by municipal authorities and that the police actions were therefore illegal. The police claim, however, that the marchers interfered with car traffic and disrupted public order by littering the streets with leaflets and disturbing residents. They also say that several police officers were injured by demonstrators.

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Pashinian claimed that the investigation can already be considered deeply flawed and biased. “The fact is that law-enforcement bodies know that we have video and audio [of the incident,]” he said. “Not only are they not demanding it but are doing everything to ignore it.”

Ter-Petrosian and his allies claim that the arrests and ensued criminal inquiry are part of “repressions” unleashed by the administration of President Robert Kocharian in retaliation for the ex-president’s decision to contest the upcoming presidential election. They say the crackdown exposes government fears that Ter-Petrosian will mount a serious challenge against Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, Kocharian’s preferred successor.

Incidentally, The Armenian Observer wrote a post for Global Voices Online on the arrest and detention of Ter Petrosian’s supporters last week. It is also interesting to note the black eye Pashinian seems to have recently sustained presumably during the clash or in police custody.

Nikol Pashinian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007