Levon Ter Petrosian to Run for President

As expected, the former president of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, has announced that he will run in next year’s presidential election. The topic of much speculation in the media as well as among the public, Ter Petrosian made the announcement at an opposition rally staged in Yerevan’s Liberty Square in front of a crowd estimated to be between 10-15,000 people with the consensus of opinion from most journalists and analysts reckoning on 10-13,000.

Of course, pro-Ter Petrosian outlets such as A1 Plus put the figure at a totally unrealistic 35-40,000 while even Radio Free Europe appears to over-estimate the number by putting it at “more than 20,000.” Bloggers such as Observer put the number at “around 10,000,” while Agence France-Presse reports “up to 15,000.” Whatever the figure, however, the crowd was respectable for an opposition rally, and not least for one that marked the return of a man who until recently many considered disgraced and unpopular.

AFP focuses on what a Ter Petrosian presidency might mean for Armenia. In particular, this relates to Armenia’s relations with Turkey and resolution of the long-standing and still unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan over the mainly Armenian-inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

If successful, his return to office could signal a major shift in Armenia’s fraught relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Ter-Petrosian, 62, is an advocate of compromise with the two countries, which have closed their borders and imposed economic embargoes over Armenia’s support for the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorny Karabakh.

[…]

Armenia needed to end its regional isolation by normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, he said.

“Until we have resolved the questions of the blockade of Armenia, relations with our neighbours and Karabakh, Armenia cannot develop and strengthen,” he said.

“As a result of the criminal policies of the current government, Azerbaijan has only toughened its position and will not seek compromise,” he added.

[…]

Analysts say Ter-Petrosian is perhaps the only Armenian politician with the clout and experience to mount a challenge to the current leadership.

Aram Sarkisian and Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

RFE/RL, however, concentrates on other aspects of Ter Petrosian’s speech and the fact that not only was it held on the eve of the eight anniversary of the 27 October 1999 assassinations in parliament, but that he also referred to the killings. Many of the relatives of those slain during the terrorist attack consider that it was organized by individuals in government. Some openly point the finger at Kocharian who strengthened his position and consolidated power as a result.

High levels of government corruption also figured prominently with Ter Petrosian attacking the president and prime minister head on.

Ter-Petrosian elaborated on this claim by accusing Kocharian, Sarkisian and their inner circle of personally controlling the most lucrative forms of economic activity through direct ownership of business or “state racketeering.” “The three main principles of the capitalist or market-based economy have been breached: creating equal opportunities, ensuring fair competition and protecting private property,” he said.

“Otherwise, in which other country can an ordinary bus driver get so rich in one or two years that he is able to make tens of millions of dollars in investments not in his native Artsakh (Karabakh) but in the United States of America? Or how can a 25-year-old young man become one of Armenia’s ten wealthiest businessmen just two or three years after graduating from university?” he asked, clearly referring to Sarkisian’s controversial brother Aleksandr and Kocharian’s son Sedrak.

[…]

The Ter-Petrosian rally came the day before the eighth anniversary of the October 1999 attack on the Armenian parliament which left then Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian, parliament speaker Karen Demirchian and six other officials dead. That was the reason why it also featured two other opposition speakers: Demirchian’s son Stepan and Sarkisian’s brother Aram. The latter reaffirmed his and his radical opposition Hanrapetutyun party’s strong support for Ter-Petrosian return to power.

[…]

Ter-Petrosian effectively implicated Kocharian in the 1999 attack, saying that the latter greatly benefited from it and obstructed the search for possible masterminds of the shootings. “Willy-nilly Kocharian directed all suspicions at himself, which means he must have had serious reasons to take such a risk,” he said, adding: “The October massacre was the main development that cleared the broad way to the formation and development of Kocharian’s regime.”

Greta Sarkisian, mother of assassinated prime minister Vazgen and opposition leader Aram Sarkisian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

The news item, however, also mentions Ter Petrosian’s time in office before he was forced to resign in 1998 under pressure from the current president who was then prime minister and ironically enough, his powerful defense minister, Vazgen Sarkisian. Nine years on, Sarkisian’s brother, Aram, is one of the main backers of Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid. Aram also served as Kocharian’s prime minister in the months following his brother’s assassination. Funny how things change.

[…] Ter-Petrosian did not mention in his speech the controversial episodes of his own rule that lasted from 1990-1998. The period was marked by a surge in government corruption and elections criticized as deeply flawed by Western observers.

Ter-Petrosian famously ordered troops to the streets of Yerevan in September 1996 to suppress opposition protests against his hotly disputed reelection. He insists that the vote was not rigged.

Ter-Petrosian hinted on Friday that he will admit mistakes in his further public pronouncements but insisted that he never lied to Armenians. “I have never hidden the truth from the people, no matter how bitter it is,” he said. “I have never given false promises and engaged in populism or demagoguery. And I am not going to betray those principles.

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Aram Sarkisian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

After the meeting I ran into a prominent representative of, shall we say, a rather significant diplomatic mission in Armenia. Over a beer he wondered how the meeting went although he didn’t seem as interested as you might expect given that Ter Petrosian will undoubtedly hope to rely on Western support for his candidacy, especially if the election is rigged. To be frank, it is that support which was considered crucial in “democratic revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine, and just one reason why Armenia has not followed suit.

Interestingly, RFE/RL has published an article reporting that Azerbaijani politicians are already wondering what a “colored revolution” would mean. However, the focus is not on the impact such an event would have inside Armenia, but rather in terms of what it would mean for resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Asked to comment on the possibility that Washington may seek to return Ter-Petrossian to power by means of a new “colored revolution” such as catapulted Viktor Yushchenko into the presidency of Ukraine, analyst Rauf Radjabov told day.az on October 24 that Washington would have to secure, first, the agreement of Ter-Petrossian — who won a convincing and overwhelming victory in the 1991 presidential ballot — to return to power by means of a revolution, and then to the complicity of Armenia’s security services, which are currently under the firm control of Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. […]

Radjabov did highlight one perceived dangerous consequence for Azerbaijan in the event that Washington does manage to engineer Ter-Petrossian’s return to power, namely that the United States might exert pressure on Baku to accept a solution to the Karabakh conflict that is damaging to its interests.

Nobody else is thinking in those terms yet, of course, but anyway, the diplomat agreed that Ter Petrosian is the only possible opposition candidate able to contest the election against the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, although he did raise the issue of whether Raffi Hovannisian would be able to run. Hovannisian’s possible candidacy is still in question given that he does not meet the necessary residency and citizenship requirements for running.

Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Other than that, the diplomat stated that his Embassy is working with the preliminary date of 17th February for the election and said that Kocharian has already given the order for the government-controlled mass media to discredit Ter Petrosian in an orchestrated campaign of black PR. RFE/RL’s Press Review certainly seems to bear that out, and The Armenian Observer reports that State-controlled Public TV is no different.

Interestingly, although there are generally two quite opposing views in the country about the former President, with some seeing him as the only viable alternative to the current ruling elite, the material has been designed like an anti Levon Ter-Petrossian propaganda piece, showing only negative opinions, and not a single reference to the other side.

Needless to say, that this falls far below the criteria of objective journalism, and is especially worrying, because it was broadcast by the Public TV of Armenia, which is supposed to serve the public interest and reflect the Armenian society as a whole, and not just the ruling elite and its supporters.

And although my personal attitude to the Former President is negative, I’d like to have a chance of listening the opposite camp as well - after all, this is what the media in a democratic society is obliged to do: to help its citizens make an informed choice, no?

Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Armenia Now has some extended coverage of the rally and Ter Petrosian’s decision to run. John Hughes says that Liberty Square was overflowing although I personally would not agree with that. Nevertheless, the American editor of Armenia’s leading online journal views the event with the significance that it deserves although I’d also not agree that the crowd was made up by more young people. A few, perhaps, but it wasn’t noticeable in my opinion.

That’s not to say that a significant number of young and educated Armenians don’t support Ter Petrosian, but rather that most were probably at work or, as The Armenian Patchwork reports, at a free pop concert “coincidentally” staged by the government at the same time as the rally.

The hope of the people gathered on Freedom Square on 26 October to cheer for Levon Ter-Petrosyan came true as he announced that he will run for presidency again in 2008. The joint rally of oppositional leaders Aram Sargsyan, Stepan Demirchyan and first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan gathered around 10,000 people, enough to cover the whole square. A simultaneous concert half and hour away from the Freedom Square was a contrast to this event.

[…]

Despite the number of people present I could hardly see any youth among the crowd, and here is where they were. At the same when the rally began, at 1700, the Voske Ashun (Golden Autumn) concert began in the Vazgen Sargsyan stadium, which is said to have been organized by the ruling Republican Party.

Nevertheless, Hughes treats Ter Petrosian’s decision to contest next year’s presidential election as it should be. Basically, it is perhaps the most important political event to occur in Armenia since the 1999 assassinations.

The announcement brought a huge cheer from the crowd and chants of “Levon, Levon”. It was the news that supporters such as 50-year old Aghavni Hovhannisyan had waited for.

“I have participated in the (Karabakh) Movement from the very first day and think this is a continuation of the movement,” she said. “Besides being a person of authority, Levon Ter-Petrosyan is also a great intellectual, something that our present-day authorities lack.”

Generally, today’s crowd had a different makeup than opposition rallies of recent years, with a lower percentage of elderly and noticeably more middle-aged and young people. The mood was different too: whereas past political rallies in Yerevan have often been called in anger, this meeting had a noticeably cheerful and optimistic atmosphere.

“Finally, the real aspiration for freedom and independence of our people is awakening,” said Azat Gevorgyan, 42, from Armavir. “We will win. I believe in this victory.”

Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

There’s not much more to add other than the rally wasn’t as large as I thought it might be. Although not bad by Armenian standards, I did consider that it might manage to attract as many as 20,000 rather than the 10-13,000 that most independent observers estimate. On the other hand, critics of Ter Petrosian thought it might be a lot smaller and not least because it was held at a time when many Armenians are still working.

More significantly perhaps, what is interesting to note — and despite what Public TV reports — there are many educated and young voters who say that if given the choice between Serzh Sarkisian or Levon Ter Petrosian, they will would choose the latter. This is quite unlike the last presidential election in 2003. Of course, as one local analyst and blogger in attendance at yesterday’s rally remarked, “That’s not really the kind of choice this country should have.”

Ara Manoogian at Martuni or Bust agrees.

If you […] know our history from independence to LPT’s resignation, many of the things that LPT is accusing the present day government of, he himself was responsible for carrying out during his time in office.

His mention of the people electing him as the person they want to lead them will only happen if he does so as he did last time he was “elected” when the election was rigged and then the people protested the outcome and he called out the army to put a stop to the protesting populous, which was unconstitutional.

[…]

If you ask me, LPT’s candidacy is just a scheme to make people feel as if they have some choices in who to elect, but the fact is that if the choice is between Serj and Levon, then there is no choice, since they are the same.

However, that is the choice that does look likely to be put before the electorate next February. Certainly, the election looks set to be quite unlike any other in Armenia’s albeit short history as an independent country. In fact, the presidential race might actually prove to be one where issues and ideology returns to the political life of the republic.

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Nikol Pashinian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Stepan Demirchian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Alexander Arzoumanian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Hovannes Hovannisian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007