2008 Presidential Election Monitor

Armenpress reports that a recent poll conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association reveals that had the 2008 Armenian presidential election been held this month, prime minister Serzh Sarkisian would attract 31.8 percent of the vote. Trailing his lead were opposition Heritage party leader Raffi Hovannisian with 12.3 percent, the pro-government oligarch and Prosperous Armenia party leader, Gagik Tsarukian, with 12 percent, and another opposition party leader, Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian, with 11.2 percent. This means that a second round would have to be held.

According to the survey which was conducted among 1,000 respondents throughout the country, the first president of the Republic of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, would attract 3.8 percent of the vote. Interestingly, if the current president, Robert Kocharian, were able to run, he would attract only 2.9 percent. The poll also indicated that in terms of party support, the Republican party of the prime minister enjoys the most with 21 percent, and Prosperous Armenia is second with 16 percent.

Orinats Yerkir, Heritage and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnakstutyun are third, fourth and fifth, respectively. However, opinion polls in Armenia are hardly respected or treated seriously by anyone with critics arguing that the organizations conducting the polling are usually politicized. RFE/RL’s Press Review, for example, quotes a pro-government and a pro-opposition newspaper as casting doubts on such surveys.

“Hayots Ashkhar” complains that few in Armenia trust the credibility of the country’s leading pollsters accused by the opposition of collaborating with the government. “The widely held belief is that independent polling centers are non-existent here,” says the paper. Nonetheless, it says, as the presidential elections approach politicians are increasingly obsessed with popularity ratings issued by various centers.

“Hayk” shrugs off Armenian opinion polls as a “sociology of flattery.” “There is a lie, a terrible lie, and statistics,” says the opposition paper. “Opinion polls in Armenia have long been driven to the sphere of science fiction.” Pollsters, it says, routinely rig their data in order to get money from the authorities.

Certainly, few people consider the results of such polls to be indicative of the real mood in the country, and especially when there are some signs that figures such as Levon Ter Petrosian might enjoy significantly more support. Yes, the main focus of both the pro-government and pro-opposition media is the return of Ter Petrosian to politics and his possible nomination in the 2008 presidential election in Armenia.

Political expert Hmayak Hovannisian tells “168 Zham” that there is fertile ground for Levon Ter-Petrosian’s political comeback because “the leaders of all opposition parties are now discredited.” “Until this moment no opposition forces spoke out,” he says. “They didn’t speak during the post-election month. Those people could not be seen in public … Once Levon Ter-Petrosian became active they too came out of the bush and became active. Both in 1998 and now the opposition is defeated. The opposition-minded electorate is disappointed with all party leaders and is looking for some new person. And the new person is always the well-forgotten old person.”

In a week’s time we’ll know for sure about the real level of support for Ter Petrosian in Armenia when a rally to be held in Yerevan’s Liberty Square will see the former president make his first public address in person in over a decade. All eyes will be watching, although there are some dissenting voices among the opposition. National Democratic Party (NDP) Shavarsh Kocharian is one of those.

ArmInfo. The first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan is not an alternative to the incumbent authorities but their logical continuation and integral part, Leader of the National Democratic Party (NDP) of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan said at Pastark Discussion Club, Thursday. He explained that the former cannot be an alternative to the incumbent.[…]

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Asked about NDP’s plans for the presidential election of 2008, Shavarsh Kocharyan said that the party is for unification of the opposition around a single-whole candidate representing a third force. However, there is no such force so far and the party intends to make a decision on its participation in the upcoming election later, closer to the election, Shavarsh Kocharyan said.

Although many civil society activists in opposition to the government say they support Ter Petrosian or would at least vote for him over Serzh Sarkisian, others more resigned to the reality of Armenian political life would agree with Kocharian. Just as it has been argued that the system did not change when Kocharian became president, there is no reason to believe that Ter Petrosian would offer anything new either.

In fact, they argue, the system and political elite would simply continue to self-perpetuate or reproduce itself. What is needed is something new, they argue. However, there is nothing new although it has to be said, Armenia’s geopolitical orientation and relations with its neighbours might well change. Domestically, however, for Ter Petrosian to win he needs the support of many in the very same system that the opposition and civil society say they want to overthrow.

Catch-22, perhaps, although there are those who believe that candidates such as Ter Petrosian might well be able to unite Armenians again given certain support which exists in both the opposition and the government. Time will tell.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, State University, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007