Ter Petrosian Meets Manukian

Following on from his surprise meeting with old foes, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun, RFE/RL reports that the first president, Levon Ter Petrosian, has met with his first prime minister and eventual rival in the 1996 presidential election, Vazgen Manukian. The meeting comes as Armenia well and truly enters the unofficial pre-election campaign period that will surely intensify as the winter sets in.

The two leaders of the 1988 movement for Armenia’s unification with Nagorno-Karabakh jointly headed the country’s first post-Communist government before Manukian fell out with Ter-Petrosian over policy issues to step down as Armenia’s defense minister in 1993.

Their political standoff aggravated after the tightly contested presidential election in 1996 in the wake of which Ter-Petrosian sent tanks to the streets of Yerevan to quell opposition protests against the official vote outcome which showed him narrowly defeating Manukian, the then main opposition candidate. The conduct of the disputed election was then criticized as deeply flawed by Western observers and Manukian still claims to be the rightful winner of the vote.

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However, Manukian said that one of the results of the meeting was that they agreed to cooperate in the future, if necessary, in such matters as sharing information and opinions as “it will be easier to do that having restored personal relations.”

Interestingly, the veteran opposition politician doesn’t see Ter Petrosian as a potential candidate for the 2008 presidential election in which he also plans to run. Instead, Manukian sees Ter Petrosian as some kind of catalyst for bringing the splintered opposition together. Given that former presidents usually have some kind of influence and input into contemporary political matters, this idea is interesting.

Manukian, who does not conceal his presidential ambitions and intentions to run for president in next year’s election, believes that as Armenia’s first president Ter-Petrosian will better serve the opposition push for a power change as a factor of consolidation rather than the main candidate.

Ter Petrosian aid, Alexander Arzoumanian, however, doesn’t appear to agree, but says that whatever happens should be guided by the national interests of the country. Although somewhat cordial towards his former friend turned rival, Manukian appears to be at odds with the radical opposition represented by the likes of Aram Sarkisian and Nikol Pashinian, seemingly the main support base for Ter Petrosian’s return.

Manukian, who does not conceal his presidential ambitions and intentions to run for president in next year’s election, believes that as Armenia’s first president Ter-Petrosian will better serve the opposition push for a power change as a factor of consolidation rather than the main candidate.

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[…] In particular, shortly after Ter-Petrosian’s first public speech in nearly a decade on September 21 where he referred to the Armenian government as an “institutionalized mafia-style regime that has plunged us into the ranks of third world counties”, Manukian expressed his dismay at the assessment made by the former leader who he believes should have admitted his responsibility for serious political and economic problems facing Armenia today.

“I am disappointed because Levon Ter-Petrosian faced the same accusations, made in stronger or softer terms, during his presidency,” Manukian told RFE/RL in late September.

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Aram Sarkisian, the leader of the radical opposition Hanrapetutyun party, however, thinks Levon Ter-Petrosian is the only person who can wage a successful struggle against the current regime in Armenia. He does not agree with the statements of AZhM members that the opposition should rally primarily around Manukian. “We all need Levon Ter-Petrosian’s return so that we can finally enter the 21st century and do away with this clan-based system,” he told RFE/RL.

A1 Plus also reports on the meeting, but what is most interesting is the response from one pro-opposition newspaper the following day. RFE/RL’s Press Review carries an English summary of that.

Reporting about a meeting between former president Levon Ter-Petrosian and former prime minister Vazgen Manukian on Monday night, “Hayk” assesses: “It is an extremely important event in the internal political life of the republic and can play a decisive role in the consolidation of the opposition if, of course, the two key figures in the establishment of the Third Republic can reach understanding, if with the help of their supporters they can smooth out their long-standing disagreements.”

Meanwhile, as the Prosperous Armenia party of MP, oligarch and former arm wrestling champion Gagik Tsarukian, says it will support the prime minister in next year’s vote, Hetq Online looks at what the opposition has to offer in response. Perhaps in anticipation of Ter Petrosian’s candidacy, Tigran Paskevichyan says that a common opposition candidate can and will not be someone new. The current political system, he argues, will not allow that to happen.

Many have said while speaking of the upcoming presidential elections that there is the need for a new person, that everyone - both the authorities and the opposition, both the old and the new - has outlived their time. This could be true, if it weren’t so obviously false. It is false because there is no need for a new person and there could not be one because of a number of reasons.

The structure of our country does not allow for someone to establish themselves in politics, because, for example, the mayor of the capital or the heads of provinces are not elected, elections for seats in parliament are a formality and so on. So any new person who tries to enter the field could be asked - who are you, what experience do you have, what have you achieved in life?

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Besides all this, sixteen years is not enough time for a new generation of politicians to come up.

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Who can be the NEW PERSON in this situation? Levon Ter-Petrosyan? If we go by the saying that “anything new is just something old that has been forgotten,” maybe. But let us not rush into things, because the first President of Armenia has only given a speech and has not said anything about coming forward as a candidate.

There is nobody new and there will not be one. That much is obvious. Therefore, maybe there should be a different approach - instead of looking for a new person, one should look for new solutions to old problems.

Interestingly, even the Heritage party of Ter Petrosian’s first foreign minister, Raffi Hovannisian, appears not to be against his return to active politics with one of their senior figures, Stepan Safarian, saying that the former president has “[t]he political power and the experience […] to be an alternative. […] Ter-Petrosyan is seriously concerned with [the situation in the country] and his speech on 21 September reflected his concerns. […]”

One Armenian newspaper, however, says that Ter Petrosian is still undecided although suggests that the odds are increasing in favor of his nomination. According to Hayk, the odds are now at 50-50. One supposes that attendances at reported plans for Ter Petrosian rallies in the capital will be what will decide the matter. There shouldn’t be long to wait to know for sure.

In related news, the Sksela youth movement, apparently in cooperation with the Center for Regional Development / Transparency International Armenia, has already started its activities in preparation for the election.