Geghamian, the State Budget and Serzh Sarkisian

Until recently, one of Armenia’s most controversial and outspoken opposition leaders was National Unity’s Artashes Geghamian. After failing to make it through to the second round of the 2003 presidential election, Geghamian urged his supporters to boycott the vote leading other opposition party leaders to accuse him of secretly cooperating with the authorities. He had also been traditionally pro-Russian until the 2004 attempt to remove Kocharian from office saw him temporarily adopt a more pro-Western outlook in the hope that international support for regime change would be forthcoming.

Ironically, Geghamian was joined in 2004’s failed attempt to replicate a coloured revolution in Armenia by many of the same opposition politicians that had previously accused him of working with Kocharian and the then defense minister, Serzh Sarkisian. Since then, Geghamian’s popularity even among his traditional support base — the socially vulnerable — has dwindled and RFE/RL reports that the animated and sometimes extremist party leader is likely not to stand in next year’s presidential election.

However, it also adds that Geghamian will not necessarily endorse Ter Petrosian’s possible candidacy either.

Opposition leader Artashes Geghamian pointedly declined on Wednesday to announce his participation in next year’s presidential election and said he is ready to endorse another candidate.

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Geghamian also replaced his customary harsh criticism of the Armenian government with calls for the consolidation of the country’s political elite for the sake of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and other issues relating to the “salvation of Armenian statehood.” […]

Geghamian also revealed that he met with Ter-Petrosian two weeks ago to discuss “threats to Armenian statehood.” He said they reached no concrete agreements because of their differences on a number of unspecified issues.

The meeting was part of Ter-Petrosian’s ongoing consultations with various opposition forces which are aimed at building broad-based political support for his possible presidential bid. Speaking at a weekend AMK conference, Geghamian indicated that he is unlikely to endorse the ex-president.

Artashes Geghamian, Opposition Rally, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004

Meanwhile, the local print media continues to speculate on the election with some pro-governmental papers recognizing Ter Petrosian’s growing importance in the struggle to succeed the incumbent president, Robert Kocharian, when he leaves office early next year. According to many analysts and opposition activists, Ter Petrosian is the only political figure able to contest the election against the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian.

“Hayots Ashkhar” says the prospect of Levon Ter-Petrosian’s participation in the 2008 presidential election is “radically changing” the Armenian opposition camp. “It no longer contains numerous pretenders for the second place [in the presidential race] because Levon Ter-Petrosian’s nomination makes one thing clear to everyone: in the existing balance of forces the first and second places are already occupied,” says the paper, apparently referring to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian.

In the same press review, the pro-opposition Haykakan Zhamanak, a newspaper supportive of Ter Petrosian, reports that the prime minister will use the massive increase in next year’s budget as part of his election campaign. RFE/RL reports that government spending will reach 820.8 billion drams ($2.45 billion) next year — up from 584 billion drams this year. Sarkisian has already promised to raise pensions, and RFE/RL says that other recipients will include the health and education sectors.

News of the budget increase was reported here and also by The Armenian Observer.

Traditionally, the amount of attention given to the State Budget in Armenia is nil. This important document, which sets out exactly how the country will develop in the next year, defines the mechanisms of how the state policies and activities will impact every single citizen in the country, is usually presented as an indecipherable book of figures, which is hardly ever explained to the average citizen.

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There have been a number of publications in the newspapers, as well as the blogosphere discussing the unexpected figure. Despite the Prime-Minister’s words, that he is not and adventurer, and the budget is a realistic one, nobody seems to have taken it seriously. The 2008 Presidential Election Monitor blog, for example, has seen it as the start of the pre-election campaign.

Anyway, still seen as the most likely candidate to win next year’s elections by fair means or foul, Sarkisian appears to remain confident in public at least about the prospect of facing a more intellectual and arguably more “worthy” candidate such as Levon Ter Petrosian in next year’s vote. In 2003, Kocharian faced Stepan Demirchian, son of the last Communist-era leader of Armenia and someone not notable for his intellectual or political prowess, let alone his oratory skills.

For now at least, he’s probably right although as a keen gambler he’s sure to have perfected a poker-face down to a tee. And with the election only a few months away, anything could change and most probably will.