However, it’s worth pointing out that online polls are notoriously inaccurate, prone to multiple voting, and anyway reflect the opinion of a narrow segment of a potential audience — in this case, a mainly pro-opposition readership, but anyway…

“Zhamanak Yerevan” claims that the late Prime Minister Andranik Markarian’s son Taron, who is the mayor of Yerevan’s northern Avan district, is in two minds about whom to support in the upcoming presidential vote. The paper says he decided recently to rally his father’s longtime friends around Ter-Petrosian’s presidential bid. “In order to keep him from realizing this intention, the authorities have offered him the post of Yerevan mayor, but Markarian’s son is not quite sure that these authorities will not dupe him,” it says.

Just a week passed, and it was found out that there is another politician in Armenia, who has no less political experience needed for taking the president’s post. Armenian ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosian is meant here. He, unexpectedly for many representatives of the “party in power,” broke his almost ten-year silence on the day of the 16th anniversary of Independence Day. In his speech made mainly before his companions-in-arms from the Armenian National Movement (ANM) the ex-President gave a brief and very impartial assessment of the state of affairs in Armenia and some problems in the foreign political sphere. The Yerkir-Media TV company standing close to the ARF Dashnaktsutiun characterized this speech as a preelection one. I would evaluate it as a program speech, but only partly, as many things remained “off screen.” Nevertheless, many moments were rather interesting. For instance, the part of his speech regarding corruption in the country in many respects met the statements and documents adopted by the participants of the Anti-Criminal Movement and Council of Elders of Forum of Intelligentsia as far back as in late 2006. This is indirect evidence that in case of making a decision to run for the presidential elections Levon Ter-Petrosian is going to appeal to a wide public opinion, and not only to his companions-in-arms of many years.

The reaction of the pro-governmental press and especially of electronic one (we first of all mean many TV companies) was obviously inadequate and, unfortunately, was reduced to already usual formula: “Minimum information - maximum agitation.” Such an approach gave a curious effect, the essence of which is that in the opinion of relatively neutral observers, such large-scale public accusations of
this or that politician are made only in case he at least is able to pass to the second round of the presidential elections.

President Robert Kocharian also demonstrated his anxiety about the situation being formed. He even threatened his predecessor that he can be reminded many things. Indeed, the law was broken very often in the 90-s, but few things have changed since then. Naturally, we can suppose that the previous Armenian authorities also have sufficient information about the “deeds” of the current administration. Therefore, we do not think that R. Kocharian’s threats will have a serious impact on the development of the situation.

[…]

Consequently, events and political processes to take place in the Armenia will have be decisive. We first of all mean future distribution of administrative, political, financial, and information resources. At present most of these resources can be used in support of Prime Minister Serge Sargsian. However, the situation from static became dynamic after the above mentioned speech of the ex-President, which,
under certain circumstances, can contribute to both change of format of the whole political field of Armenia and redistribution of the administrative resource. The latter is known to be S. Sargsian’s main trump card. However, this does not mean that he will always possess it. The events of the past two weeks clearly demonstrate that the situation may change.

Armenia Now also carries an analysis of Ter Petrosian’s return although I think few people will agree with the conclusion made by Aris Ghazinyan. Indeed, I haven’t heard one analyst of note analyze Ter Petrosian’s speech as Armenia Now have and suspect it more represents Ghazinyan’s personal hopes and opinions rather than what is really happening. Nevertheless, it is there for people to read.

[…] his team proved incompetent in presenting the very process of overcoming the mentioned problems, and instead of creating a “myth of a boss” was engaged only in unmasking the incumbent authorities as almost all opposition forces did and continue to do. That is why, on September 21, Levon Ter-Petrosyan (unlike Karen Demirchyan) did not state his nomination thereby stating the defeat of his own team. It is obvious that if the first president of Armenia indeed intends to recover his lost position ever, he will not accept nomination for the presidential election in 2008. By announcing his plans to run for president he would have given up his political career for good.

As I’ve said, so far the reaction to Ter Petrosian’s reappearance has not been considered negatively and many civil society activists hope that he will run. Given a choice between Serzh Sarkisian and Ter Petrosian, most say, they would choose the latter. Regardless, what really matters is how the population feel about that, and for now at least, nobody really knows and that is precisely what Ter Petrosian is still trying to gauge.

However, it is true that if he does decide to run he will need to at least appear to show some remorse about conditions during his presidency, offer an apologetic explanation as to why, and also present a solid platform to the electorate with a team that can afford some respect behind him. Otherwise, there’s no doubt for now that by fair means or foul, Serzh Sarkisian will likely be the next president of the Republic of Armenia. It seems unlikely that any other opposition figure could hope to appeal to the electorate let alone combat the extent of administrative resources at the prime minister’s disposal.

As for Ter Petrosian, it has been said that he represents a more moderate choice of president in terms of “mediating” between clans involved in business disputes that can at times risk getting violent. Kocharian also represented the same, but the “Sarkisian clan” is said by some to be more problematic.