2008 Presidential Election Monitor
Although much of the past week has been concerned with the return of the first president, Levon Ter Petrosian, to active politics and his possible nomination for next year’s election, it’s of course important to note that others also plan to run. One of the first to announce such an intention even as far back as the parliamentary election held in May is Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian. RFE/RL reminds its readers that this is still the case and that he also intends to go it alone.
Former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian will stand in Armenia’s forthcoming presidential election and will not endorse any other opposition candidate, his Orinats Yerkir Party said on Monday.
The announcement followed a weekend meeting of the Orinats Yerkir leadership that discussed the party’s pre-election strategy. It bore out analysts’ forecasts that Baghdasarian will not withdraw from the presidential race in favor of any other opposition leader.
“The Orinats Yerkir will participate in the forthcoming presidential elections with its own candidate,” Artashes Avoyan, a senior Orinats Yerkir parliamentarian, told RFE/RL. “We are talking about the party leader,” he said.
Avoyan added that Baghdasarian will be formally nominated as a presidential candidate at a party congress scheduled for the beginning of November.
The development is a further indication that Armenia’s divided opposition will fail to rally around one or even two major candidates ahead of the presidential ballot due in February or March. Such a consolidation is widely seen as a necessary condition for mounting a serious challenge against Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the election favorite. Several opposition politicians have already declared their intention to run for president on their own.
Nevertheless, all focus remains on Ter Petrosian and prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, and even though the former has still not declared his intention to run. Last night at dinner with senior political figures from a foreign diplomatic mission, for example, all talk between the other guests from civil society and local think tanks was on Ter Petrosian’s recent meeting with representatives from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutiun. Yesterday, RFE/RL also reported on that meeting.
The meeting, held at the Dashnaktsutyun headquarters in Yerevan on Saturday, came as a further indication that Ter-Petrosian is leaning towards contesting the approaching presidential election. It was the first time that he set foot in the offices of a party which he had accused of terrorist activity and banned during his rule.
Ter-Petrosian was accompanied by Aleksandr Arzumanian, a former foreign minister and his longtime close associate. They were received by Hrant Markarian, the top member of Dashnaktsutyun’s worldwide governing Bureau, and Armen Rustamian, the nominal head of the nationalist party’s organization in Armenia.
[…]
“We agreed, among other things, to stay within the bounds of a political, ideological struggle and not to descend to a lower level,” said Markarian. They also stressed the need to create an “atmosphere of tolerance and solidarity in the country,” he said.
[…]
The very fact of such an encounter is quite extraordinary given the extent of mutual animosity which Dashnaktsutyun and Armenia’s first-Communist government headed by Ter-Petrosian developed even before the Soviet collapse. The two sides strongly disagreed on Armenia’s geopolitical priorities, with Dashnaktsutyun insisting on continued reliance on Russia and a firm Armenian stand on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey. […]
“We deliberately avoided talking about the past because I think all of us should worry more about the future of our country and our people,” said Markarian.
Consensus of opinion still appears to be that only Ter Petrosian has the ability to successfully contest the election against Sarkisian. The reason given is that the prime minister’s control of administrative levers would lesson in the event of Ter Petrosian’s candidacy. Already, Ter Petrosian has hinted that he is not against the oligarchs, for example, and it is known that some officials and government employees are sympathetic towards the first president.
As for Dashnaktsutiun, few expect them to make a strong showing in the poll regardless of who they decide to nominate as their candidate.
Instead, many observers believe that their refusal to back Sarkisian’s candidacy is instead aimed at gaining more power in government. In the event of a second round in the election, for example, Dashnaktsutiun could “bargain” with the prime minister for their support. It is in this context that many see their surprise meeting with Ter Petrosian on Saturday although most agree that the ARF-D would like to see the return of ideology to Armenian politics.
Nevertheless, the blogosphere continues to discuss the meeting with journalist Mark Grigorian weighing into the discussion. Until a failed attempt on his life in 2002, Grigorian was a local journalist based here. Now he works in the United Kingdom. The Armenian Observer provides an English summary of what Grigorian writes on the subject.
There was no dialogue between them for 14 years, after LTP prohibited the activities of the party. The meetings mean that the first president is literally breaking into politics, and although not long ago the blogger was sure, that Ter-Petrossian has no practical chances, no we can see his return - step-by-step. Mark Grigoryan is inclined to believe Levon Ter-Petrosian’s statement, that he hasn’t decided if he will run, and looking at the movements Serzh Sargsyan is doing in Russia (trying to get Moscow approval in the forthcoming elections), and speculating about his possible visit to US with the same mission, Mark Grigoryan is sorry, that once again the common people are lost amongst the political dealings and nobody really talks about the actual voters, who still remember the “dark” and poor years of Ter-Petrossian’s rule.
Whatever the situation, however, almost everyone is waiting to see what Ter Petrosian decides with many suspecting that he is more inclined to do so or not. His supporters seem to think so and the speech he gave a little over a week ago on the occasion of Armenia’s 16th Anniversary of Independence appeared more like a last attempt to “test the water.” Interestingly, rather than provoke a backlash against the idea, it seems to have achieved the opposite, but only time will tell what the people really think about that.
Artur Baghdasarian, Orinats Yerkir Campaign Rally, Shengavit, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007
- Published:
- 10.02.07 / 1pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Blogs, Candidates, Parties
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