Reactions to Ter Petrosian’s Speech

Four days after Ter Petrosian’s first major public speech since being forced to leave office in 1998, the ante in the run up to the 2008 presidential election has already been raised. In what could be seen as sign that the current authorities take the prospect of Ter Petrosian’s return to politics very seriously indeed, President Robert Kocharian has responded very publicly to accusations made last Friday by his predecessor.

Whatever the reasons, Kocharian makes some powerful counter claims which indicate that the 2008 presidential election will be as much a reflection on the past 16 years of independence as well as about who will follow him as president early next year. RFE/RL reports the gloves are now well and truly off.

Kocharian dismissed the accusations by pointing to Armenia’s robust economic growth that has averaged 13 percent per annum since 2002. “Today Armenia is one of the fastest developing countries in the world,” he said in remarks broadcast by state television. “The most effective reforms are being implemented in Armenia. And if those characterizations [made by Ter-Petrosian] really applied to Armenia, we would never have such success.”

Kocharian also cited a substantial increase in government spending over the past decade. “I became prime minister of Armenia in March 1997 and inherited a $300 million [state] budget with a deficit of about $40 million,” he said. “Next year, Armenia will have a budget worth about $2.5 billion. Just compare [the two figures].”

“One has to be extremely self-isolated in order not to see what has happened in the country,” he added in a jibe at the extremely low profile kept by Ter-Petrosian since his resignation in 1998.

Kocharian went on to emphasize that he has until now avoided publicly attacking his predecessor out of respect for independent Armenia’s first president. He indicated that he will no longer restrain himself if Ter-Petrosian decides to contest the forthcoming presidential elections.

[…]

The government-controlled Armenian Public Television reacted to Ter-Petrosian’s speech at the weekend with a scathing report that accused the country’s former leadership of mismanaging the economy, rigging elections and being responsible for several high-profile killings of the early 1990s. Some pro-Ter-Petrosian papers hit back on Tuesday by a citing an even longer list of such killings, including the October 1999 terrorist attack on the Armenian parliament, committed during Kocharian’s rule.

In another report by RFE/RL, veteran opposition party leader Vazgen Manukian also hit out at the man who many believe stole the 1996 presidential election from him. At that time, tanks were sent out onto the streets of Yerevan in the face of opposition protests against what is considered Ter Petrosian’s fraudulent re-election as president. Interestingly, however, Manukian also appeared to be offering advice to his old foe.

“To be honest, I am disappointed because Levon Ter-Petrosian faced the same accusations, made in stronger or softer terms, during his presidency,” Manukian told RFE/RL. “He should have structured his speech in a different way. He should have shown the roots [of those problems,] he should have given explanations.”

“It can be inferred [from his speech] that what is wrong today was right in the past,” he said. “It turned out that nothing has changed in [Ter-Petrosian’s] team in ten years.”

Ter-Petrosian critics believe in particular that Armenia’s culture of electoral fraud emerged during his eight-year rule. They specifically point to the conduct of the disputed September 1996 presidential election criticized as deeply flawed by Western observers. Ter-Petrosian sent tanks to the streets of Yerevan to quell violent opposition protests against the official vote results which showed him narrowly defeating Manukian, the then main opposition candidate. Manukian still claims to be the rightful winner of the vote.

[…]

Manukian, who intends to contest next year’s presidential election, claimed that Ter-Petrosian’s possible participation in the vote would make it easier for the authorities to legitimize a planned transfer of power from Kocharian to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. Ter-Petrosian loyalists make similar claims about Manukian, saying that his presidential run would further split the opposition vote and thereby benefit Sarkisian.

According to RFE, however, one prominent opposition parliamentarian believes that Ter Petrosian will be nominated as a candidate for next year’s vote and so it will be interesting to see whether Kocharian’s knee jerk reaction might actually backfire on the current administration. By taking Ter Petrosian’s return so seriously they might have instead showed to the electorate that they take his possible participation very seriously indeed.

The pro-opposition A1 Plus is already playing up such a possibility.

“Kocharyan’s respond to Ter-Petrosyan’s speech reminds a childish argument”, said politician Aghasy Enokyan to “A1+”, commenting on Robert Kocharyan’s announcement regarding Ter-Petrosyan’s speech. He noticed that Ter-Petrosyan did not mention names in his speech and gave political assessments to the situation, independence, war and victory. Aghasy Enokyan noticed “boyishness” in Kocharyan’s speech. “I am so sorry that Kocharyan wants to continue the fight on that level”. […]

[…]

Mesrop Movsesyan, head of the “A1+” TV Channel was astonished by Robert Kocharyan’s speech. “That was not a president’s speech. It is more like the speech of an offended kindergarten child. Kocharyan shouldn’t reflect on the past, the society remembers not only 1996, but also 1993-94 triumphs, “splendid” elections in 1998 and 1999. […]

RFE/RL’s Press Review also indicates that most pro-opposition newspapers are also taking Ter Petrosian’s speech and possible comeback seriously. Their response is of course predictable, but it would appear that new life has been injected into proceedings compared to before Friday’s speech when few people could even consider that the opposition stood a chance against the prime minister’s candidacy in the election.

“Haykakan Zhamanak” predictably welcomes the end of Levon Ter-Petrosian’s prolonged silence, saying that the former president made it clear on Friday that “he will not be watching the reproduction of the ruling clan as an observer.” The pro-Ter-Petrosian paper says his comeback was “totally unexpected” for the Armenian authorities. “The fact that TV stations covering the entire republic kept totally silent [about Ter-Petrosian’s speech] for two days testifies to this,” it says. “They in the government offices could not figure out who to react to what happened.”

Another pro-Ter-Petrosian paper, “Taregir,” says the ex-president is really “inclined” to nominate his presidential candidacy. “We believe that the issue of Ter-Petrosian’s nomination is a technical one,” it says. “One is left to hope that political forces rallying around Ter-Petrosian understand the whole seriousness of the situation.”

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“Aravot” focuses on the content of Ter-Petrosian’s speech and its assertion that corruption is at the heart of Armenia’s existing political and economic system. “Unless that system is dismantled we will at best remain in the ranks of third world countries without serious development prospects. No unbiased and sincere person can fail to agree with this,” editorializes the paper.

“Regardless of the election results, Ter-Petrosian’s nomination would clear the way for political struggle in the country and the electoral system would undergo development,” writes “Zhamanak Yerevan.” “The atmosphere in the country would change, a competition of views and ideas would start. And finally, the fight against vote falsifications could become more effective because there would be many people willing to fight against them.”

Azg is the only newspaper not considered controlled by governmental parties or businessmen and officials who are part of the present elite in the country which takes a more sober and objective stance.

“While not defending these authorities, because they are not something which can be really praised, it is impossible not to recall the atmosphere of impunity that reigned in the country during Ter-Petrosian’s rule,” writes “Azg.” The paper says his government was mired in corruption and its senior members cashed in on the war with Azerbaijan.

The Armenian Observer also carries a digest of reactions to Ter Petrosian’s speech. Referring to the TV report mentioned in the last post, Observer says that he is disgusted by the low levels which Public TV sinks to at such times. Ironically, such methods and reports usually backfire, but anyway.

Having noted the fast and balanced coverage of first president’s speech on Yerkir-Media (the video is available here), I have to state, that I’m utterly disgusted by the coverage on Public TV.

This piece broadcast on Public TV (and made available on YouTube thanks to Uzogh) is sheer disgrace for all journalism professionals in modern day Armenia, and I can’t understand - why the money, which I’m paying as taxes to this country, is being used in such a hideous way, and who on earth has allowed a journalist with such poor understanding of the meaning and role of journalism to work on Public TV?

Observer also feels as though the real issue is being missed. That is, neither Serzh Sarkisian, Kocharian or Ter Petrosian have much to be proud of. Critics instead argue that they were or are part of the same system of corruption and oligarchy established in the 1990s and which continues today. It is for this reason that few Armenians feel optimistic about the direction the country is taken or have any faith or interest in the process of democratization here.

One comment left on Observer’s blog perhaps sums up that reality and mood only too well.

It sometimes seems to me that both Ter-Petrossian and Bobby Kocharian (BK) (or Serzhik Sarkissian (SS), for that matter) are particles of the same power chain playing the game of portraying each other as foes, while essentially being offspring of the same political circle. Can we claim that there has been a radical, substantive change of authority? If they are foes, why would Ter-Petrossian be allowed to live untroubled all these years? Kocharian has never attempted to make LTP or any of his accomplices accountable for the crimes they have committed in the early 1990s. LTP’s supporters remained, and even advanced career-wise, in the Kocharian-led government. As if there exists a tacit agreement between them: you leave me in impunity for my crimes, and I’ll do the same for yours’.

Whether Levon, Bobby, or Serzhik, I’m afraid it makes no difference for ordinary people. All of them exhibit the signs of undemocratic, unelected, wealth-hungry, unaccountable, self-centered, and repressive rulers. It is hard to imagine that powers who manipulate events in this world will ever allow for public-spirited, charismatic liberal leaders to emerge on the political horizon. Individuals like LTP, BK, or SS are tied with shadowy external power brokers who prefer illiberal, susceptible, manageable leaders as opposed to popular, patriotic individuals.

I admire my Armenian people whose widespread apathy and abhorrence towards those in power—past or present—is another form of civil disobedience that is impossible to subdue. From biology I know professionally: when worms are left alone (with no other noble species amidst them) in a can, they start gobbling each other up. Let’s leave the rulers in the can . . .

I’m sure that there will be plenty more time for reflection and analysis as the days, weeks and months progress. This in itself is productive, I think, although I hope that there is no potential for a serious polarization to occur which might lead to a very tense and violent pre-election period. Handled correctly, perhaps this could be right time for everyone to evaluate where Armenia is as a country and now attempt to address all of its major shortcomings and problems.

Unfortunately, however, it is more likely that this chance will be missed, but perhaps we can at least all hope for something different this time round. The discussion so far has certainly been productive and thought-provoking, but whether that means anything much remains to be seen.

Levon Ter Petrosian, HHSh Independence Day Reception, Marriott Armenia, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007