2008 Presidential Election Monitor

Now the summer is behind us, and with the political autumn in Armenia now well and truly under way, things are starting to get a little more interesting in the still unfolding battle for the presidency that will be decided by an election to be held in February or March next year. Well, perhaps it would be more correct to say it’s interesting for political observers.

It can hardly be said that the unfolding race is of much interest to the population for now at least. Besides, in the first of three updates on the run-up to the official election campaign period, RFE/RL reports that the ruling Republican party is confident of a first round victory for Sarkisian.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian will win Armenia’s approaching presidential elections in the first round of voting, a senior member of his Republican Party (HHK) claimed on Wednesday.

Vazgen Khachikian, who also manages the state pension fund, said Sarkisian’s landslide victory has already been predetermined by the weakness of Armenia’s fragmented opposition.

“As far as opposition is concerned, even the government of Soviet Armenia was not in such a good position,” Khachikian told reporters. “The opposition has never been so weak before.”

[…]

Senior Republicans now say their presidential candidates victory is a forgone conclusion. “We will score a very convincing victory,” the leader of the party’s parliament faction, Karen Karapetian, predicted earlier this month.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutiun (ARF-D), however, is not so convinced, but it’s unlikely that they stand much of a chance of competing with the administrative and financial resources of the Republicans. In another article, RFE/RL says the party is putting a brave face on the incumbent president’s recent endorsement of Sarkisian as his preferred successor.

President Robert Kocharian’s decision to support Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian in the forthcoming presidential elections is “natural” even if it is not good for Armenia, a leader of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) said on Wednesday.

“It would be good and right for the country, if Robert Kocharian supported our [presidential] candidate,” said Armen Rustamian. “But naturally, if Serzh Sarkisian runs, Robert Kocharian will back his candidacy. After all, the two men have long worked together and are much closer to each other.”

Dashnaktsutyun clearly disagrees with this, despite being represented in Sarkisian’s cabinet by three ministers and having closely cooperated with his Republican Party of Armenia (HHK). The pro-Kocharian party has regularly criticized the state of affairs in the country, most recently during a congress held in Nagorno-Karabakh over the weekend. In a statement, it deplored Armenians’ “growing alienation from and disappointment with the authorities and political forces.”

Interestingly, although the ARF-D might have minor support in Armenia, the party which enjoys strong support in many communities in the Diaspora could be considered the most democratically-structured of those operating in the republic. As a recent USAID report concluded, most political parties in Armenia are based almost solely around a central figure rather than ideology or any structure which guarantees their continuation.

In practice, the current leadership and organizational structures of most Armenian political parties are heavily dependent on the personality of the party chair and top leaders without whom many parties would likely whither. As one analyst told the assessment team, “In other countries, the party picks the leader. In Armenia, the leader picks the party.”

[…]

Most of the newer parties appear to be the product of personal differences between party leaders who have split away and created their own parties. […] This has fragmented the party system and diminished their chances for an electoral win. It has also weakened the ideological basis for many parties, some of which switch ideologies with leaders. Politics in Armenia is a zero-sum game and allegiance follows power with hardly any reference to ideology. In this context, politics is positioning for power rather than taking positions on issues.

This system was referred to as a “pyramid” system that had been inherited from the Soviets and perpetuated by post-independence politics. Power is at the top and the system is run by a few individuals. No one who is within the pyramid can act independently. Voters are perceived as subjects rather than the determiners of who gets into office. This affects the dynamics of the party system and widens the gap between party leaders and voters.

Nevertheless, some reports on the democratic development of Armenian political parties hold up the ARF-D’s structure with a rotating Supreme body as an interesting model. And with the party still undecided about which of two senior members should represent them in the election, one newspaper is even comparing the the ARF-D to parties in the United States. Again, RFE/RL has more.

“Hayots Ashkhar” compares plans by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) to choose its presidential candidate from among two leaders, Armen Rustamian and Vahan Hovannisian, to U.S. primaries.

Meanwhile, as radical opposition supporters await news of former president Levon Ter Petrosian’s decision on returning to active politics and running against Sarkisian or not, more moderate opposition forces are also declaring that they would consider backing his candidacy. The latest is Kocharian’s main challenger in the 2003 presidential election, People’s Party (HZhK) leader, Stepan Demirchian although RFE/RL reports that a senior aid, Grigor Harutiunian, has not ruled out Demirchian’s candidacy either.

Stepan Demirchian is ready to withdraw from the unfolding presidential race in favor of another candidate capable of unseating Armenia’s current leadership, a close associate of the once popular opposition leader said on Wednesday.

[…]

“We appreciate Levon Ter-Petrosian’s experience, which can serve as a consolidating factor,” Harutiunian told reporters. “But let us not talk too much about that because Levon Ter-Petrosian himself hasn’t said anything [on his participation in the elections] yet.”

Harutiunian confirmed that Demirchian and Ter-Petrosian held what may have been their first-ever one-on-one meeting recently. “They discussed their positions and expressed concerns regarding the situation in the country,” he said.

Ter-Petrosian had been meeting with his loyalists, supporters and various opposition figures for the past several weeks to gauge the extent of popular support for his presidential run. Aides say he has not yet decided whether to enter the fray.

In Harutiunian’s words, Demirchian’s participation in the election as a candidate is also a possibility. “Is he ready to go it alone? We’ll talk about that when the right time comes,” he said. “I just want to emphasize that we have experience in acting alone and can repeat it.”

Some reports suggest that Ter Petrosian will make his decision to run or not known on or after 21 September. Coincidentally or not, that date is significant in more ways than one as it will also be Independence Day in Armenia. It will also undoubtedly prove to be yet another opportunity for the current prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, to present himself to the people as the next president of the Republic of Armenia.

Stepan Demirchian, Opposition Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003