The Pre-Election Campaign Begins

Well, not officially, but effectively it has. Following on from the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, raising pensions in the few months prior to next year’s presidential election, RFE/RL today reports that the State Budget will also reach record levels — $2.5 billion to be precise. However, no breakdown of how the additional money will be spent has been made available. Sarkisyan denies any connection between the increase and his presidential ambitions.

“Only adventurists motivated by some pre-election interests can endanger the republic’s natural development,” he said. “And as you know, I have never been an aventurist.”

Sarkisian also said his cabinet will commit itself to ensuring a further sizable increase in its tax revenues. “Traditionally, our tax and customs revenues have accounted for the lion’s share of Armenia’s budgets,” he said.

The government will still be dependent on loans and grants from Western donors. In a separate development, Finance and Economy Minister Vartan Khachatrian announced on Wednesday that Germany will provide Armenia with 79.5 million euros ($110 million) in fresh loans next years.

At the same time, in a related story, the current outgoing president has again publicly lambasted officials for low tax collection. Still, whatever the reasons for the increases, perhaps people shouldn’t be so cynical. As long as both the increase in pensions and budget occur, it’s pretty much the same way that governments and officials seek re-election in the West. Perhaps Armenia is experiencing real albeit slow democratization after all.

Certainly, it marks a noticeable change from past elections when the mechanisms chosen were pretty much confined to ballot box stuffing and making up the numbers in the Central Election Commission (CEC). With most of the media under control, and unless a viable alternative emerges, Sarkisyan’s attempts to win the votes of the electorate might just prove successful.

On the other hand, with the dram appreciation against the dollar, the increase in the state budget isn’t as large as it would seem a few years ago. Still, it is a sizable increase nonetheless, and given the recent opinion poll which put Sarkisyan’s popularity behind Vartan Oskanian, Raffi Hovannisian and Gagik Tsarukian, he is arguably the most popular candidate to date if only because none of the three ahead of him are eligible or interested in running.

One of the questions some 1,200 Armenians randomly interviewed on July 5-12 were asked to answer was: “Which of the Presidential candidates would you vote for if the Presidential elections were held next Sunday?”

In Poghosian’s words, Sarkisian’s name was only fourth in the resulting rankings of potential presidential candidates. He said they were topped by Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian and millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukian. “They were followed by Serzh Sarkisian,” he told RFE/RL.

Poghosian refused to reveal their percentage figures, saying that the collated results of respondents’ answers to the question are not subject to publication. He said the pollsters have only informed various politicians about their respective ratings.

Earlier in the week, MP, oligarch and Prosperous Armenia party leader Gagik Tsarukian, for example, made it clear that he had no intention to contest the election. Vartan Oskanian has also ruled out running, and like Raffi Hovannisian does not meet the 10-year-residency requirement as a citizen anyway. For now at least, all bets are still on Sarkisyan and signs are that next year’s vote will mark an improvement over previous ones held in 1996, 1998 and 2003.