The alternatives to Serzh may well be decided, as well. This near-conviction is based on the simple fact that virtually all Armenian oppositionists (if this is a proper term to describe them) are bought and paid-for and are on the watch list in terms of what they do or when they do. Try to form an alternative political party in Armenia that is “unauthorized,” i.e. considered uncontrolled by either the local elites or external powers and see if it can succeed. Our world has become too small, too densely populated, too globalized, too technologically advanced, to think that the outcome of a major event like a national election can depend on a what-if.

More democracy will eventually come, I agree, but it will come at a time when global power brokers decide that more room can be made for it. At this stage, I think, strong authoritarian, anti-popular, unelected regimes are generally preferred over the weak liberal democratic governments for the sake of maintaining the regional stability. And let’s admit that that’s, too, is a man-made actuality.

There are so many what if’s in this life, that we can’t just lay back and say - it’s all decided, and Serzh will be president and that’s final. I mean - what if Serzh drops out of the campaign for some reason (say he has a heart attack like Andranik Margaryan had this Spring). Are we going to sit around and say - oh no, we have no other candidates, or are we going to know our choices and alternatives by that time. And what if Kocharian decides to run, and what if the war in Karabakh resumes tomorrow, or, on a more optimistic note, what if a peace deal is reached next week? What if a sharp rise in food prices continues? What if the US Dollar rate jumps back up? How will any of these factors affect the political landscape?

No matter how pessimistic you, me, everyone are about the state of democracy in Armenia, we still have some of it. But if we refuse to make use of what little choice and democratic freedoms we have, if we decide that its all decided anyway, why complain that about not having even more democracy? We don’t need it anyway, right?

In any condition I am always for keeping my options open. And even if I lived in an absolute monarchy with hereditary transfer of power, I would still be interested to know - WHAT IF?

P.S. Sorry for posting my previous post twice.

Is our voter educated enough? Can our people be trusted with electing its president? I know this is a dangerous question because there is no better alternative to this or that kind of democracy. But just think about it. Even now the US electoral system has the institute of “voter”, meaning that it is not a direct representation. When I tried to understand the mechanism of US electoral system I was amazed at how much power the “voter” institute has. When I read about US electoral system’s history I found out that the “voter” mechanism was there to ensure an “educated voting”

Now, who shall our people vote for when we are technically at war? The natural answer is: for the guy who has immediate Karabagh war experience and can be a real commander in chief. All other voting will be against natural human instinct. Even if people are tired of Sarkisyan and angry with him, an “educated voting” shall take into account the possibility of “war situation” first. For example when Azerbaijan makes an aggressive statement they increase the possibility of Sarkisyan geeting more votes

However, regarding war, this is a problematic argument and I say this for one reason and one reason only. This argument is being used constantly in Armenia and Azerbaijan to justify undemocratic practices.

Now, as those undemocratic practices also mean more corruption and personal gain in terms of obscene wealth, why on earth would any Armenian and Azeri leader want peace?

Really, this is a real problem that some consider exists in both republics.

Is our voter educated enough? Can our people be trusted with electing its president? I know this is a dangerous question because there is no better alternative to this or that kind of democracy. But just think about it. Even now the US electoral system has the institute of “voter”, meaning that it is not a direct representation. When I tried to understand the mechanism of US electoral system I was amazed at how much power the “voter” institute has.

Now, who shall our people vote for when we are technically at war?

It is kind of discomforting to come across an Internet discussion on the next Armenian president when virtually everyone in Armenia knows that people’s votes are being cynically neglected and used only to falsify every other parliamentary or presidential election. How can one monitor something that does not actually exist?

Well, a discussion is about revealing the reality, and allowing comments like yours. That’s the point. That’s a discussion

The incapable and often incapacitated Armenian opposition, which is largely believed to be directed either by the government or by outside players, is just a smoke screen used to conceal actual plans or intentions, create an optical illusion of democracy, or cover the “chosen” contender by furnishing supplementary votes in case something goes wrong on or before the election day. It is the gut feeling of many observers and educated people (still remaining in miniscule numbers in Armenia) that these powers have agreed on Serzh’s candidacy. The guy plays in the hands of the string-pullers because he is an authoritarian and illiberal ruler and therefore is a predictable person, one who is susceptible to political control. Liberal or participatory contenders are not encouraged because, by definition, they tend to conduct relatively independent, public-oriented, statehood-bolstering policies that are generally viewed as unwelcoming by the powers who want control.

It is kind of discomforting to come across an Internet discussion on the next Armenian president when virtually everyone in Armenia knows that people’s votes are being cynically neglected and used only to falsify every other parliamentary or presidential election. How can one monitor something that does not actually exist?

“Aravot” reports that an opinion poll conducted by the APR Group organization found that less than 30 percent of Armenians believe that their government is formed as a result of free and fair elections. About 74 percent of them feel that Armenia’s citizens are “not protected by the law.” Eleven percent said they would vote for Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian if the presidential election was held this Sunday. Sarkisian was followed by opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian (8.4 percent) and Levon Ter-Petrosian (2.9 percent). Almost 38 percent of respondents were undecided.

Personally speaking, I think I’d be undecided too.

Citing unnamed sources, “168 Zham” claims that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) has asked Hrant Vartanian, a tobacco tycoon connected to the nationalist party, to set aside as much as $10 million for the election campaign of Dashnaktsutyun’s presidential candidate. “According to the same sources, Hrant Vartanian has agreed to the offer,” the paper says, suggesting that the money will be a payback for one of his sons’ recent election to the parliament on the Dashnaktsutyun ticket. “Thus, Dashnaktsutyun will legalize the Armenia-based source of the party’s funding and, therefore, the finance base of its presidential candidate. And it will be spared accusations of being financed from abroad.”

However, it’s worth stressing these are allegations from unnamed sources.