2008 Presidential Election Monitor
RFE/RL reports that a new poll indicates the popularity ratings of various politicians ahead of the 2008 presidential election. No concrete figures have been made publicly available by the Armenian Sociological Association which has in the past been accused of pro-government bias, but as the organization now conducts surveys for the International Republican Institute (IRI) it’s worth quoting.
According to the results, of those politicians eligible to run for the presidency, the prime minister is second only to pro-government Prosperous Armenia leader, MP and tycoon, Gagik Tsarukian. However, RFE/RL takes a different position on the findings and reports that his popularity is lacking.
According to Gevorg Poghosian, director of the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA), Sarkisian was only the country’s fourth most popular politician as of July. Poghosian cited some of the hitherto unpublicized findings of a U.S.-funded opinion poll conducted by the ASA at the time.
[…]
One of the questions some 1,200 Armenians randomly interviewed on July 5-12 were asked to answer was: “Which of the Presidential candidates would you vote for if the Presidential elections were held next Sunday?”
In Poghosian’s words, Sarkisian’s name was only fourth in the resulting rankings of potential presidential candidates. He said they were topped by Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian and millionaire businessman Gagik Tsarukian. “They were followed by Serzh Sarkisian,” he told RFE/RL.
Poghosian refused to reveal their percentage figures, saying that the collated results of respondents’ answers to the question are not subject to publication. He said the pollsters have only informed various politicians about their respective ratings.
Poghosian only agreed to disclose popular support, as measured by the ASA, for former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who is considering running for president. He said it stands at about 1.7 percent. “I don’t see popular demand for the first president’s return to power,” he added.
According to Heritage, the popularity of Raffi Hovannisian stands at 19 percent. However, both Hovannisian and Vartan Oskanian are not eligible to run for president next year meaning that Tsarukian and Sarkisyan actually occupy the number one and two positions of possible candidates respectively. Of course, actual support would be different in the event of an election when there would only be a few names to choose from.
Even so, there have been instances where those not eligible to run for president have done so, the most notable of which is arguably the incumbent. However, in 2003 another candidate who didn’t meet the 10-year requirement for residency ran — Aram Karapetian. Interestingly, however, a few months after the vote, when he joined the ranks of the “radical opposition,” the Central Election Commission refused to accept his candidacy for parliament saying he failed to meet the 5-year residency requirement.
Now, RFE/RL says that he has stated his intention to contest next year’s vote even though he still doesn’t meet the necessary residency requirements. Not that this prevented him in the 2003 presidential election, of course, leading to speculation that he was initially nominated to divide the opposition vote. At the time the opposition accused Karapetian of secretly cooperating with then Defense Minister and Kocharian’s Campaign Manager, Serzh Sarkisyan.
Aram Karapetian, a radical opposition leader, reaffirmed on Monday his intention to contest next year’s presidential election, saying that he will win more votes than any other opposition candidate.
Karapetian said he will therefore not join the ongoing negotiations among other top opposition on the possibility of fielding a common presidential candidate.
“I officially state that I will be nominated as a presidential candidate and will not join forces with anyone,” he told a news conference. “I will go it alone.”
[…]
Karapetian, who has spent much of the past 15 years in Russia and makes no secret of his pro-Russian views, disputed this widely held belief, saying that the abundance of contenders will actually make it impossible for Sarkisian to win the election outright in the first round. “In my view, the run-off will be between Serzh Sarkisian and Aram Karapetian,” he claimed.
Karapetian also claimed that he will do well in the upcoming presidential ballot not least because he has more campaigning funds at his disposal than any other opposition hopeful. He said the source of the money is his Moscow-based businessman brother and “very rich friends” living in Russia and Armenia.
[…]
The Central Election Commission (CEC) barred the Nor Zhamanakner leader from contesting the previous parliamentary elections held in May 2003 on the grounds that he had not permanently resided in Armenia for the past five years. The minimum residency requirement set by the Armenian constitution for presidential hopefuls is ten years, meaning that Karapetian will not be eligible for the Armenian presidency unless the CEC reconsiders that decision.
Well, perhaps someone should remind Karapetian that regardless of how many rich friends and relatives he has, present legislation places a maximum limit on campaign expenses. During the 12 May parliamentary election, Karapetian was one of the main opposition figures that constantly purchased additional air time for political advertising on Public TV. Certainly reading such quotes from someone meant to represent an alternative to the current authorities can’t provide anyone with much hope that the law will be followed.
And that’s not even taking into account the fact that, like Hovannisian and Oskanian, Karapetian is not even eligible to run.
Aram Karapetian, Opposition Rally, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004
- Published:
- 09.05.07 / 10am by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Legislation
14 Comments
Jump to comment form | comments rss [?] | trackback uri [?]