Ter Petrosian, Ter Petrosian…
It seems hard to imagine, but as mentioned in the previous post, the possibility that the former first president of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, might be considering running for the 2008 presidential election is fast becoming a major talking point in Yerevan. It should be pointed out that Ter Petrosian has remained in Armenia since his resignation from office which means that the current authorities have not seen fit to prosecute him for alleged corruption during office.
This is significant given the fact that the incumbent president, Robert Kocharian, would also need to remain immune from any retribution or prosecution when he has to step down next year. Unlike some other potential opposition candidates, it also means that Ter Petrosian does not necessarily threaten the business interests of the current ruling political and economic elite, an important issue and one that is noted in an analysis written by RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan for EurasiaNet.
Levon Ter-Petrosian, Armenia’s former president widely acclaimed in the West for his conciliatory line on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is considering returning to active politics and, in particular, contesting a forthcoming presidential election. His comeback would mark a dramatic turn in the unfolding presidential race which the Armenian authorities hope will formalize a planned handover of power from President Robert Kocharian to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. The issue has dominated the Armenian political discourse and press commentary for the past several weeks.
Sarkisian’s chances of succeeding Kocharian received a massive boost when his Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) swept to a landslide victory in last May’s parliamentary elections. The crushing defeat suffered by the country’s fragmented opposition led to suggestions that the outcome of the Armenian presidential ballot, due early next year, is a forgone conclusion.
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Ter-Petrosian has rarely spoken in public since then. He reportedly considered participating in the last presidential election held in 2003 but decided to continue his self-imposed retirement. Earlier this summer, the reclusive ex-president began touring various regions of the country and meeting local activists of his Armenian National Movement (ANM) party behind the closed doors. The meetings, which are still going on, have reportedly focused on his participation in the upcoming presidential vote, with ANM activists pleading with him to enter the fray.
According to members of Ter-Petrosian’s inner circle, he hears similar calls from various politicians, businesspeople and even government officials who they say visit his Yerevan house on a practically daily basis. Also visiting Ter-Petrosian in late August was Rudolf Perina, the US charge d’affaires in Yerevan. Neither Ter-Petrosian, nor the US Embassy released any details of the meeting.
As mentioned on this blog, many Armenians still consider Ter Petrosian to be responsible for the economic hardships they faced during the early 1990s when the worst effects of the blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan as well as spiraling corruption were evident. Some pro-government critics also argue that Ter Petrosian’s fugitive Minister of Interior, Vano Siradeghian, still at large and wanted by Interpol, was responsible for the criminalization of the police force — a reality citizens are still paying dearly for today.
A historian and philologist by training, Ter-Petrosian rose to prominence in 1988 as one of the leaders of a popular movement for Armenia’s unification with Nagorno-Karabakh, then part of Soviet Azerbaijan. The movement gradually embraced a pro-democracy and pro-independence agenda, ousting Soviet Armenia’s last Communist government in parliamentary elections held in 1990. A year later, less than three months before the break-up of the Soviet Union, Ter-Petrosian was elected the country’s first president with more than 85 percent of the vote.
Much of that popular support was gone in the next few years, following the outbreak of a bitter war with Azerbaijan for Karabakh and armed conflicts elsewhere in the South Caucasus. The conflicts effectively cut off Armenia from the outside world, causing its economy to shrink by more than half in 1992-1993 and leaving a large part of its population jobless. The economic collapse was compounded by a severe energy crisis which meant that most Armenians had electricity for only a few hours a day for several consecutive years. Many of them blamed their post-Soviet leadership for their suffering, dismissing its assurances that they are paying the price of the Armenian military victory over Azerbaijan.
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Ter-Petrosian loyalists counter that many Armenians have reconsidered their negative attitudes towards their first president and now rate him more highly than their current rulers. They also claim that Ter-Petrosian enjoys the hidden backing of many members of the country’s post-Soviet government and business elite who owe their fortunes to him and are unhappy with Kocharian and Sarkisian. As his associate interviewed by EurasiaNet put it, “If Ter-Petrosian’s electoral chances are slim, then why is he now the number one topic of conversations in Armenia?”
Well, it’s difficult to say whether people here can forget so easily, or even that re-electing a formerly despised president can be considered anything other than regression, but one thing is sure. Ter Petrosian is considered to be a highly intelligent political figure so depending on the outcome of his contact with loyalists and the public throughout the country, if he runs he expects to win. Certainly, at this stage, it is difficult to consider that any of the other opposition presidential hopefuls will manage to challenge the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, in what will be his likely candidacy.
It has to be said, such a development, and the way it is being greeted, is surprising, but it is a reality. Of course, others might argue that when Ter Petrosian left office in 1998, Kocharian’s coming to power did not change anything significant in terms of the political system here. In a sense, it could even be argued that the current authorities are merely a continuation of the former and so Ter Petrosian’s return wouldn’t offer anything different either. Regardless, time will tell what the former president decides, and we should know soon enough.
Next year’s election is now only six months away, and Ter Petrosian’s decision is expected by the end of September. Meanwhile, Serzh Sarkisyan is everywhere on TV and continues to unofficially campaign in what can only be seen as his intent to run for and win next year’s vote.
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