2008 Presidential Election Monitor

Despite many analysts and election observers believing that any idea of the return of Levon Ter Petrosian, first president of the Republic of Armenia, to the political scene is unlikely, something interesting happened last night. One local businessman who can be considered somewhat close to the ruling Republican party (HHK) asked about the likelihood of Ter Petrosian running in next year’s election.

People are unhappy with the ruling “Karabakh clan” of Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sarkisyan, and the gap between the rich and poor is wider than ever, he said. As to the widespread opinion that corruption and falsified elections first emerged under the former regime, that was all lies he believed. Few would buy into that, of course, but what is interesting is that such opinions are starting to be voiced, and how frequently they are will undoubtedly influence Ter Petrosian’s decision to run or not.

The idea that Levon Ter Petrosian is the only opposition leader who could contest the election against the likely dominant candidacy of prime minister Serzh Sarksiyan seemed to strike a note with this businessman despite his reliance on local HHK connections. Adding to that belief is the understanding that there are those in international circles in the West that consider Ter Petrosian’s return would be conducive to continued development in Armenia and especially as it relates to resolution of the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh.

I’ve heard such opinions from senior members of European diplomatic representations in Armenia, especially France, and RFE/RL’s Press Review quotes one local newspaper sympathetic to the former president as saying that the U.S. Embassy has even met with Ter Petrosian in recent days.

“Haykakan Zhamanak” reports that the U.S. embassy in Yerevan has confirmed that the U.S. charge d’affaires, Rudolf Perina, met with Armenia’s former President Levon Ter-Petrosian. The embassy is cited as explaining that Perina holds meetings with various Armenian politicians and government officials as part of his job. The paper says the meeting with Ter-Petrosian was initiated by the U.S. mission. “Levon Ter-Petrosian’s office refused to comment on the meeting,” it says. “Our sources in the U.S. embassy note, however, that the main topic of the conversation was the internal political situation in Armenia and possible developments. Like many Armenians, the American diplomats wondered if Ter-Petrosian will participate in the upcoming presidential elections.”

Meanwhile, in this weekend’s repeat parliamentary election, the ruling Republican party won another seat in parliament bringing their total to 65. Interestingly, the vote was seen by some as a test of the popularity of opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian ahead of next year’s presidential election, but who ran for the vacant seat despite already sitting in parliament. However, Hovannisian only polled 3.4 percent of the votes cast as compared to 44.2 percent for the Republican party’s Khachik Manukian. Again, RFE/RL has more.

Manukian had already been narrowly elected from the electoral district No. 15 during the May 12 nationwide parliamentary elections amid allegations of massive vote rigging made by Mnatsakan Mnatsakanian, his main rival and the mayor of the local town of Talin. The outcry led the HHK leadership to force Manukian to renounce his parliament mandate. The vote was re-run as a result.

[…]

Opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian, another major candidate who was shown winning only 3.4 percent of votes, called the election deeply flawed but still congratulated Manukian. “The election process was fundamentally unfree and unfair, with a variety of government levers and resources being applied to voters in inappropriate and often unlawful fashion,” Hovannisian said in a statement. “Hopefully, Armenia’s leaders will discharge their responsibilities with greater integrity and legality in the future.”

“In the interim, I congratulate Mr. Manukian and wish him well in the service of his constituents from the 15th district,” he added.

The ballot was found to be largely democratic by election-monitoring organization It’s Your Choice, which claimed to have deployed observers in all of the constituency’s 84 polling stations. “There were some shortcomings,” its chairman, Harutiun Hambarstumian, told RFE/RL. “But they could not have affect the election results.”

As for what this means for next year’s presidential election which most analysts and citizens consider will see the incumbent pass on power to the prime minister, it’s fair to say that the Republican party and Sarkisyan appear as strong as ever. And with an opposition still divided it seems unlikely that any current leader of a mainstream political power stands a chance of defeating him, especially as continual public appearances by the prime minister seem to be slickly controlled for maximum publicity.

Yesterday’s close of the fourth Pan-Armenian Games which saw 2,500 ethnic Armenians compete in a week long sports event in the republic was just one example of that, but there are many more which I’m sure will increase with frequency over the coming months. Next up, of course, is Independence Day on 21 September. What remains to be seen is whether or not public discontent with the situation in Armenia is enough for potential candidates such as Ter Petrosian to be seen as offering an alternative.

Yet, despite surprise comments from individuals such as the local businessman, a lot of effort will have to be made by the opposition to reverse the otherwise negative opinion surrounding the very mention of Ter Petrosian’s name. However, as he is considered extremely intelligent as a political figure in Armenia one thing is certain. If Ter Petrosian does decide to run for president it will only be if he thinks that he stands a chance of winning.

For now, the government does not seem to be too concerned by such a possibility with RFE/RL’s Press Review quoting an Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun representative as saying that the authorities are as strong as ever. ““We keep hearing [from opposition leaders] for the past ten years that the authorities are in panic and even in their death throes, and dates and hours are being set for regime change,” Spartak Seyranian is quoted as telling 168 Zham.

“But as you can see, the authorities are in control,” Seyranian concluded.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, Pan-Armenian Games Finale, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007