Business As Usual

The election campaign period might be unofficially upon us, but there’s nothing new to report to be honest. It’s business as usual with the same two topics taking center stage to the point where I’m not sure it’s even worth repeating them anymore. However, as this blog is meant to monitor pretty much everything, there’s no escaping them. Again, the ruling Republican party says that it will be their candidate, presumably the prime minister Serzh Sarkisyan, who will be elected the next president of the Republic of Armenia. Meanwhile, the former ruling party, the Pan-National Movement (HHSh) believes that only the first president, Levon Ter Petrosian, can prevent that from happening.

Ter-Petrosian, who has avoided public appearances since resigning under pressure in February 1998, reportedly traveled to Armenia’s northern regions in recent weeks to hold meetings with local supporters. Despite repeated statements by his loyalists about his plans to make a presidential bid, the 62-year-old reclusive ex-leader has given no indication yet that he is considering a political comeback.

According to the HHSh leader, active negotiations with other opposition forces around a single presidential candidate are underway. He said he held several meetings with opposition leaders and politicians every day, including with Vazgen Manukian, who was Ter-Petrosian’s main rival in the 1996 presidential election and claims to have been deprived of a clear victory by the former regime.

Zurabian said that despite some personal disagreements that may exist between the two politicians, the HHSh board has “contacts and normal relations” with Manukian.

He described Manukian as a “very serious politician” who is capable of gathering a certain team around himself ahead of next year’s presidential election. “But unlike Levon Ter-Petrosian, he has no chance to win the elections,” Zurabian added.

[…]

“I don’t think that [Prime Minister] Serzh Sarkisian can look into Levon Ter-Petrosian’s eyes and say something against him. Naturally, he should use pseudo-candidates for this purpose,” Zurabian asserted.

Nobody else seems too convinced, however, with many Armenians still associating the desperate conditions they had to endure in the early 1990s with Ter Petrosian. Indeed, and as the radical opposition bloc Impeachment discovered during the May parliamentary election, association with HHSh is more likely to lose a party or candidate votes rather than gain it any. Azg even believes that talk of the possible return of Ter Petrosian to local politics favors only the government.

“Azg” argues that it is the majority’s candidate who is primarily interested in the nomination of Levon Ter-Petrosian as a candidate in next year’s presidential election: “First, the discredited leader of the former ruling party is a convenient competitor to run against given the fact that he cannot expect to win at this moment and does not pose any particular threat. And secondly, he [Ter-Petrosian] can hinder the efforts of some opposition forces to unite around Vazgen Manukian. It remains to clarify whether this scenario was developed with or without Ter-Petrosian’s knowledge.”

Other newspapers sympathetic to the former ruling party and Ter Petrosian in particular continue to argue otherwise, however. For example, Haykakan Zhamanak sees the coming election as the last chance for the traditional opposition no longer with representation in parliament to continue as political forces in Armenia.

It suggests that a large number of opposition political parties are struggling to survive under current political conditions and may cease to exist completely unless a breakthrough is achieved in 2008.

“Already now the public gets the feeling that the opposition’s activities are senseless, and if the government achieves a victory in 2008 many opposition parties may stop their operations altogether. Even the relatively younger opposition parties will experience serious difficulties in recruiting members because this feeling of ‘senselessness’ will grow deeper. This shows that uniting ahead of the presidential election is in the vital interest of opposition parties.”

They’re probably right, but the issue still remains one of whether they will support an opposition candidate who is not their preferred choice. That is, in what are more propaganda pieces in favor of his candidacy rather than objective analysis, Haykakan Zhamanak continues to push for the nomination of Levon Ter Petrosian as the common opposition candidate.

The analyst of “Haykakan Zhamanak” writes on the same subject: “It is obvious that there is a growing interest towards Levon Ter-Petrosian at present. One thing appears to be clear – Ter-Petrosian, indeed, is giving a serious thought to whether return to politics or not, and dozens of factors would influence his decision. By the way, there is an opinion in the political and public circles that Ter-Petrosian will not return to politics unless he is sure he will win in the upcoming presidential election and the authorities appear to be doing everything to dispel his assuredness.”

However, while the opposition continue to disagree on who deserves backing for the election, and as reported by some papers here, the prime minister Serzh Sarkisyan is working skilfully to shore up support in time for the election. According to some media reports he has even enlisted the support of Levon Martirosian, founder of the new MIAK political party and head of the British Alumni Association (BAA). Such reports are particularly interesting given MIAK and the BAA’s reported links with now U.K.-based former prime minister Armen Sarkisyan.

“Hayk” writes that before going on vacation Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian managed to surround himself with new aides — Mikael Minasian and Levon Martirosian. […]

“As for Levon Martirosian, he is the leader of the MIAK party that was set up ahead of last May’s parliamentary elections and brother of comedian Garik Martirosian,” “Hayk” explains, reminding its readers that on August 5 Martirosian accompanied Serzh Sarkisian on his visit to the village of Koti where he [Martirosian] was “taking notes” of everything the prime minister was saying with utter admiration. “After that, many expected Sarkisian to pay attention to Martirosian and use his and his MIAK’s services.”

MIAK is also particularly interesting given that many of its members also belong to the BAA and work for international organizations here or consider themselves to be young western-leaning professionals and entrepreneurs. They also say they are interested in implementing second-generation reforms in Armenia which raises some interesting questions regarding the West’s possible interest in seeing a continuation of the present system in Armenia rather than an opposition candidate becoming president — if they can ever agree on working together, of course.

One pro-opposition newspaper detects a change in the political weather.

“Iravunk” predicts serious changes in Armenia’s politics in the near future: “It is already clear that no matter who wins in the upcoming presidential election, he will have to adopt a clear-cut geopolitical orientation in two or three years’ time and carry out serious domestic reforms proceeding from that. The 15-year-long period of anarchy following the collapse of the Soviet Union is drawing to an end and specifications appear to be unavoidable. It is another thing that Armenia’s political system in general and the country’s ruling elites in particular are not ready for these changes.”

So, it’s business as usual in Armenia with nothing new being said at all. It’s summer still and perhaps to be expected, but it is unfortunate that few if any journalists, analysts, political parties or civil society activists are talking about concrete issues. For example, what about Karabakh, the normalization of relations with Turkey, poverty reduction and development in the regions of Armenia, European integration and everything else which will determine Western support for specific candidates?

Ironically, it appears as though it is only the ruling Republican party that understands that their position on such matters needs to be conveyed to an international community that will be watching developments here, but framing them in the context of long term change and regional developments.