Oskanian or Serzh in 2008?
As mentioned in the comments sections of two previous posts here and here, some observers and political figures believe that there are those in government who do not support the idea of the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, taking over the presidency next year. For example, not only is there speculation that Kocharian might back another candidate other than Sarkisian, but the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D), one of the three parties making up the current government coalition, has already stated that it will not support his candidacy.
However, as even Dashnak party members believe that there are no suitable candidates from among their own ranks, some are wondering if both Kocharian and the ARF-D might not be considering supporting the Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian instead. Interestingly enough, a quick search on Google brought me this article from October last year by RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan.
Vartan Oskanian, a former U.S. citizen who has served as Armenia’s foreign minister since 1998, is increasingly signaling his intention to contest the presidential election of 2008. There is mounting speculation in Yerevan that it is he, rather than the powerful Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, who is President Robert Kocharian’s preferred successor. Sarkisian’s allies exposed their unease over Oskanian’s possible presidential ambitions by attacking him in parliament last week.
In recent months Oskanian has repeatedly and pointedly declined to rule out his participation in the presidential ballot, which would hardly sit well with either Sarkisian or Armenian opposition leaders. The suave 51-year-old minister, who rarely commented on domestic politics until recently, is now taking every opportunity to publicly deplore chronic vote rigging, government corruption, and mismanagement.
Oskanian first dropped a hint about his presidential run at a news conference last July, calling for urgent “second-generation reforms” in Armenia that he said would “hit the economic and political interests of the [ruling] elite.” He said he is ready to help implement such reforms and warned against a repeat of the serious fraud that has marred almost every election held in the country since the Soviet collapse in 1991. These remarks followed media reports that Kocharian might be grooming him for the presidency.
[…]
Oskanian’s knowledge of international affairs has earned him the kind of respectability in the West that few other Armenian politicians can boast. Also, unlike most other members of the ruling regime, he has not been implicated in corruption scandals. His main weakness is a lack of a power base and the fact that, in many ways, he is still an outsider in the Armenian political scene.
Yet assuming that Kocharian is encouraging his presidential bid, Oskanian can count on the backing of a new but extremely ambitious party led by Gagik Tsarukian, the country’s top “oligarch” close to the Armenian president. […]
Some local observers have speculated that Prosperous Armenia’s most likely presidential candidate is none other than Oskanian. The latter has also been linked with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, an influential member of the ruling coalition that has already indicated that it will not endorse Sarkisian for the presidency.
Well, he might not have a local power base, but as the opposition looks unlikely to decide upon a single representative candidate for the election, Oskanian might be neutral enough a figure for some of anti-government (read anti-Sarkisian) forces to rally behind. Moreover, for the West he would also represent continuity in the Karabakh peace negotiations as well as the process of European integration, and as the article says, is certainly a known quantity in diplomatic circles.
He is also well known in the large Diaspora, and while lacking political clout at home, his most trusted assistant, Armenian-American Salpi Ghazarian, is at least responsible for attracting and influencing the investments of Diasporan Gerard Cafesjian in Armenia. In the case of the presidential election, this means CS Media, Armenia’s largest media company which not only has control of one of the main TV stations in the country, but which also disseminates news and information abroad.
In a recent article published by Armenia Now, however, now opposition MP Stepan Safarian said he believed Oskanian would make a weak president, while Armenian-American analyst Richard Giragosian says that Armenia is not yet ready for political leaders who are unwilling and probably unable to rule the country with an iron fist. Interestingly, the same argument is made against Heritage’s Raffi Hovannisian, but anyway.
He says the best scenario for Kocharyan will be if he gets a weak president, whom he can control from the sidelines; in the worst case Kocharyan will have to leave and hand the power over to someone else.
“Davit Harutyunyan or Vartan Oskanian could fit to the role of a weak president. They are frequently named. For the moment at least, Serge Sargsyan does not correspond to this scenario and if Kocharyan is forced to leave the power, he will have to accept Sargsyan’s victory,” says Safaryan.
[…]
Giragosian says also Oskanian’s aspirations are not attainable.
“At first sight Oskanian seems an experienced politician who has been in power elites for years. But in fact he has been isolated and the sphere of his activities has been limited. There are some positive sides in this, however, because keeping him aloof from the decision-making by the elite has helped him to be more unsullied. But you never know if one is able to be a good president regardless of whether he is unsullied. Being ‘clean’ is not enough,” says Giragosian.
Nor, Giragosian adds, is Armenia ready to have an unscathed leader yet.
“It’s Armenia, not Oskanian, which is not ready. For the time being perhaps Armenia needs someone like Putin – with some dictatorial way of rule and the ability to eradicate corruption and the constantly increasing criminalization in the country.”
Anyway, food for thought, although I personally don’t accept the idea that authoritarian rulers are better than democratic ones even in countries such as Armenia. However, I would accept that in order to avert internal political crisis, it probably would be beneficial to elect a president that has the backing of the majority of NA Deputies. In that case, there are less than a handful of possible candidates who might meet that criteria. Other than Sarkisian and possibly two others, Oskanian is one of them.
The full article is here.
- Published:
- 07.26.07 / 3am by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Diaspora
14 Comments
Jump to comment form | comments rss [?] | trackback uri [?]