Everybody understands that it is too late to begin any orange process here in Armenia, but there are interesting things, that I want you to focus on.
1. There will be exit polls sponsored by west. And the credibility of an organization doing this exit polls is out of question even for me.
2. There are some interesting tendencies, in US policy in region and particularly in Armenia: Perina’s appointment, close Genocide voting in Congress, Turkish elections. I think that all the developments in 2007 are showing that there’s some agreement between Yerevan and Washington. But I cannot imagine about the deeps roots of it - is it Iran, Karabakh issue, election, Iraq, Turkey or any mix of those.
3. The most important of them IMHO is Genocide bill. And positive resolution on it will bring to a full redraw of US policy in region.

And in this case - West vitally needs western oriented strong president in Armenia. And I think that it is Vartan Oskanyan.

PRESIDENT’S CANDIDATE WILL ALSO BE NOMINATED

A1 Plus, 19 July, 2007

“The second stage of presidential elections for the opposition’s united candidate is a variant which will show who has greater reputation and social demand”, announced Aram Sargsyan, head of the “Armenian Democratic Party.”

“Those who announce that they are the only unique candidates is their problem, let them find those who consider them unique. I consider that a naïve game”, said Aram Sargsyan and noted that he did not see that united candidate.

In response to ”A1+’s” question regarding how he estimated his opportunities as a united candidate of the opposition, Sargsyan said he did not want to evaluate himself and his role:: “We always talk about united ideas, and teach the nation that if a person does not represent everyone, then he is not the united candidate and that is wrong. Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s conception for a democratic party is not acceptable and if they are not with us they do not represent the opposition”.

Aram Sargsyan also talked about the authorities’ candidate and about possible developments in the governmental wing.

According to him, Serge Sargsyan’s nomination is guaranteed, but it does not mean that another presidential candidate will not be nominated. “If we probe why Vardan Oskanyan left for Pachevsk, where only presidents gathered, we’ll see where that path leads, and why the problem of “Liberty” has been solved and we will understand whose name stands behind it”, he said.

Aram Sargsyan considers that if the Dashnaktsutyun candidate was not from the party and was a very famous person, he would have a better chance to win.

“I do not think that may alter anything by a united candidate or a good proposal. If the same system is preserved during the presidential elections everything will remain as it has always been”, Sargsyan said and pointed that their primary goal was to alter the system.

Aram Sargsyan said to wait till autumn when the party would hold their sessions and then only he would make statements.

“Politicians portraying themselves as devoted democrats and liberals keep saying that Armenia can play a pivotal role in the region, become actively involved in all [regional] programs,” writes “Hayots Ashkhar.” “That [according to them] requires only one thing: they must come to power. After that reforms will go very smoothly. Corruption will automatically vanish, justice will be restored, a kingdom of law and order will take hold … It is noteworthy that the more obvious the current authorities’ successes become, the tougher the criticism they face.”

“Although the situation in Armenia has long been revolution-prone, the people are very passive not because they don’t trust the opposition but because they don’t believe in the consolidation and unification of the opposition,” writes “Taregir.” “Part of the radical opposition is clearly of the opinion that Levon Ter-Petrosian is the man who can ensure progress in Armenia. But another section of the opposition is openly against Ter-Petrosian’s [presidential] candidacy and insists on behalf of the latter that the first president will not stand.”

“Aravot” notes, meanwhile, that Ter-Petrosian’s participation in the 2008 presidential election would make its outcome more unpredictable. “If Ter-Petrosian doesn’t run — the likelihood of which is very high — then it is Serzh Sarkisian who will become president,” the paper says.

“Iskakan Iravunk” says Ter-Petrosian’s comeback would mean “emergency assistance to the old opposition.” “Many [opposition leaders] are still unable to give up their ambitions, while others are psychologically unable to overcome their stereotypes and realize that a totally new situation exists in the country now,” editorializes the paper. “They have still not realized that the consolidation of the opposition camp and development of serious programs are inevitable and, at the end of the day, urgent.”

Probably, I would add that it is Levon Ter Petrosian AND Artur Baghdasarian that ironically are likely to divide the opposition the most even if they are the two candidates considered genuinely western-leaning and most popular in European diplomatic circles. This last point would be crucial for any opposition attempts to protest any possible voting irregularities and falsifications during the election.

As I said, Raffi Hovannisian could conceivably receive the backing of the United States and Europe, but he is still ineligible to run for the presidency given he has not been an Armenian citizen for 10 years. I’m not sure he will prove successful in attempts to have his citizenship backdated through the courts, so we find ourselves in a peculiar situation.

The two potential opposition candidates with the ability to represent a real alternative to the present authorities are also the two most likely to divide the opposition camp and ruffle a few feathers among other candidates who put their own personal ambitions above the larger issue of fighting against a system which will perpetuate and reproduce itself for another 10 years in early 2008.

That is, unless Kocharian and the ARF-D put forward someone like the Foreign Minister, Vartan Oskanian, who is considered more favorably than Serzh by most Armenians and who would represent continuation in the Karabakh peace talks and the process of European Integration — something which will most likely determine the West’s support for a particular candidate.

For now, though, I think it’s pretty obvious that with alternatives to Serzh Sarkisyan more likely to antagonize opposition supporters rather than unite them, we already know who’s going to be the next President.

Interestingly, while the opposition fights among itself on such issues, Serzh is doing all he can to gain the support of the West in his presidential bid. Ironically, Baghdasarian is too, but as I said, it would appear that many of those against the government would prefer him to lose even if it meant Serzh becoming president just because politics in Armenia can once again be seen to be personality rather than issue driven.

On this basis, I wonder if there is any possible opposition candidate the electorate would rally behind or will we see the same situation as we have in Nagorno Karabakh? That is, the choice early next year will be between two pro-government candidates — Serzh and one pushed forward by Kocharian.

It’s an interesting thought, but given those alternatives currently being put forward, perhaps that will be the case with the opposition again making the same mistake that they did in the 12 May parliamentary election. i.e. putting petty rivalries, mutual dislike and personal ambitions above issues and a proper campaign.

Actually, I think that Artur Baghdasarian’s Orinats Yerkir and Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage were the only parties who campaigned properly in the last election and as they were the only guys to get into parliament from the opposition camp, it will be interesting to see if the traditional and radical opposition learn any lessons from that.

The people voted for them in greater numbers than any for any other opposition party so I’m not sure that much more can be said than that. Maybe you didn’t vote for Artur Baghdasarian/Orinats Yerkir or Raffi Hovannisian/Heritage, but a significant number of Armenians did.

Incidentally, I agree with you on Baghdasarian when he speaks at rallies although I don’t think we have any good orators in Armenia. Aram Z Sarkisyan isn’t bad, but gets too repetitive and speaks to the lowest common denominator at rallies, and while eloquent, Raffi Hovannisian’s words probably go above the heads of most Armenians.

Ironically, Serzh seemed the most down to earth at campaign rallies I attended during the parliamentary election, although I have to say the “Kez Hamar Hayastan” slogan didn’t sound too good and was positively nauseating in the campaign clips on TV. However, Raffi Hovannisian’s team were the only ones who campaigned as we know it in the West.

To be honest, although some say that Kocharian might put forward someone like Vartan Oskanian, I think with such an overwhelming power base in the parliament and with his own presidential ambitions known well in advance, we already know who the next president will be.

And so far, it doesn’t look as though a divided and impotent opposition or civil society can do anything about it other than make a lot of noise about how much they dislike the options available or chase even more USAID funding for promoting democratic elections without achieving anything other than increasing the size of their bank balances.

As someone recently said, the opposition AND civil society has grown far too comfortable in this country. Certainly, although this new opposition in the form of Orinats Yerkir and Heritage is actually acting in far more effective and mature ways than what was before, neither is able to take on the role that this country desperately needs. Meanwhile, none of the other opposition groups and NGOs are poor and continue to sell their souls to the highest bidder.

Until that changes, with an urgent need for everyone to start thinking about issues rather than personalities, nothing much is going to change at all in Armenia and the current system will continue to reproduce itself. It’s why the international community currently favor the present form of “managed democracy” in the form of Kocharian and Serzh rather than pushing for much cleaner elections which truly represent the open and democratic choice of the population.

The fact of the matter is that there is no culture of democracy or democratic values here, and until people start making choices based on exercising their democratic right to hold their elected officials accountable, it’s going to be a long time coming. The lack of democracy is everywhere — in civil society, in opposition, in the media, in the diaspora and in government — but for now the incumbent authorities are playing the right game and will continue to retain power for a long time to come.

As you imply, given the alternatives as well as the fact that an opposition president wouldn’t have any power over a government controlled parliament, perhaps that’s for the best. I’m guessing that the international community probably thinks so. Certainly, the only two alternative names in terms of opposition figures the West would support I’ve heard in Embassy circles here Baghdasarian and LTP. Perhaps Raffi Hovannisian would be one also, but of course he’s still not eligible to run.