Presidential Election in Nagorno Karabakh

Although the 2008 Presidential Election Monitor was set up to cover next year’s vote in Armenia and the issue of succession to the incumbent president here, it’s worth noting that there will be another similar election next week on 19 July in the breakaway and self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia Now has more on the vote which will see a new president elected as the incumbent, Arkhady Ghoukasian, also has to step down after holding two terms in office.

A highly intricate situation has formed in Nagorno-Karabakh on the threshold of the presidential election slated in this unrecognized republic for July 19. Despite the fact that the second president of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Arkady Ghukasyan, on July 3 described the election race as “close to ideal”, there are reasons to doubt it. The demarche of the NKR President’s advisor Arman Melikyan during the Yerevan discussions of the upcoming elections on Tuesday testifies to the presence of certain differences and a general heated emotional background.[…]

There are also other manifestations showing that the pre-election situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is not that “close to ideal”. In particular, despite the fact that on May 7 the four main parties of the NKR – the Democratic Party of Artsakh, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) of Artsakh, Free Homeland and Movement-88 signed a joint statement supporting ex-director of the NKR National Security Service Bako Sahakyan as a presidential candidate, already the following week members of the Movement-88 party’s board stated that the chairman of this political organization, Eduard Aghabekyan, was not authorized to sign such a statement on behalf of the party.

Nevertheless, elections in Karabakh are generally considered to be much better than in Armenia as well as other former Soviet republics. Cynics would argue that they have to be with no country, including Armenia, officially recognizing its existence. In light of continuing attempts to find a solution to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory, Karabakh has to show to the world that it is has all the prerequisites for independence, including the ability to hold democratic elections.

However, the international community, including the Council of Europe, refuses to accept their validity or their outcome. Indeed, it says that holding such elections threatens negotiations currently being mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group. Such a position has already irked Armenia’s Foreign Minister, Vartan Oskanian.

Statements like those made by Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis on elections in NKR do not correspond to reality, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said at a joint news conference with Ago Group head, Mr Per Sjogren.

[…]

For his part, Mr Per Sjogren said any elections on the territories of “frozen conflicts” are not recognized either by the Council of Europe or the European Union. “As to the future status of Nagorno Karabakh, this issue is in competence of the OSCE Minsk Group. The CoE mandate does not extend to conflict settlement. We just help to reach a political resolution,” he said.

In an interview with one of Armenian news agencies CoE Secretary General said the Council of Europe will never recognize the presidential election in Nagorno Karabakh. Mr Davis also said that Nagorno Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, as we wait to see how the election passes in Karabakh next week, the OSCE Minsk Group has issued a statement on the current state of affairs in negotiations. Few believe that with the presidential election in Armenia scheduled for early next year, and with a presidential election scheduled in Azerbaijan towards the end of 2008, there is much chance for a framework peace deal to be signed before then.

However, it will be interesting to see how the presidential election in Nagorno Karabakh impacts on the presidential election here and whether finding a solution to the 19-year-old conflict will feature highly in the platforms of presidential candidates. Incidentally, EurasiaNet will be covering the election next week.