The Return of Levon Ter Petrosian

Although many consider that Armenia will start to enter into its unofficial election period in the autumn I think it’s fair to say that we already have. Actually, the 12 May 2007 parliamentary election was as much about next years presidential vote as about who will sit in the National Assembly, and this week’s media bill can also be seen in that context as well. It’s for this reason that I’m now starting the 2008 Presidential Election Monitor even though the vote won’t be held until early next year.

The stakes are high given that the incumbent president, Robert Kocharian, has to step down as under the constitution he can not hold more than two consecutive terms in office. Most analysts and observers believe that Kocharian will attempt to pass on power to a hand-picked successor, most likely the new Prime Minister, Serzh Sarkisian, although some believe Kocharian might consider backing a different candidate.

Regardless, the opposition remains divided and ineffective, and there is once again talk of the former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, returning to politics. RFE/RL has more.

Armenia’s main opposition forces should choose former President Levon Ter-Petrosian as their joint candidate in next year’s presidential election if they want to achieve regime change, a leader of his Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh) party said on Friday.

The failure by those forces to form alliances is seen as one of the main reason for the Armenian opposition’s poor showing in the May 12 parliamentary elections. A growing number of their leaders are now voicing support for the idea of fielding a single opposition candidate in the presidential ballot due in February or March 2008. Some have reportedly agreed to open negotiations on the issue soon.

Aram Manukian, deputy chairman of the HHSh, also backed the idea, saying that the fragmented and demoralized opposition simply has no other choice. He insisted that Ter-Petrosian is the only politician capable of defeating the ruling establishment’s most likely candidate, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, in the presidential ballot.

Manukian downplayed the fact that the reclusive ex-president, who has kept an extremely low profile ever since his resignation over nine years ago, has left no indication that he is ready to make a political comeback and join the presidential race. “Have you ever heard Levon Ter-Petrosian or his office say the opposite?” argued Manukian.

[…]

The HHSh chairman, Ararat Zurabian, claimed at the time that Ter-Petrosian, 62, will “definitely” run for president.

Interestingly, most remain skeptical of the likelihood of Ter Petrosian returning to local politics and argue that the former president is unpopular and loathed by those Armenians who can remember high levels of corruption and power shortages in the early 1990s. Even so, what was most noticeable about the activities of the Aylentrank movement and Impeachment bloc during the May parliamentary election was the number of people who were involved that are considered supportive or sympathetic to Ter Petrosian and HHSh.

At Aylentrank’s inaugural meeting in February, for example, the loudest cheers from the audience that gathered in Yerevan’s Liberty Square were reserved for mention of Ter Petrosian and his controversial fugitive Ministry of Interior, Vano Siradeghian. Nevertheless, most people believe actual support for the former president is minimal with many of those having contempt for Kocharian having even more for Ter Petrosian.

Such issues were raised during the 12 May parliamentary election when the opposition unsuccessfully tried to unite.

Aram Sarkisian, chairman of the Hanrapetutyun (Republic) party, said he will hold more talks with Demirchian in a bid to convince him to join forces with several pro-Western opposition parties for the May 12 parliamentary elections. He confirmed reports that those include the Zharangutyun (Heritage) party of former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian and the National Democratic Union (AZhM) of former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian. Hanrapetutyun is also in talks with the former ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), he said.

[…]

Sarkisian is also due to meet Hovannisian and Manukian on Wednesday. The latter are hardly enthusiastic about his attempts to bring the HHSh into play, not least because of their past feuds with Armenia’s former ruling party. The HHSh and other groups supporting former President Levon Ter-Petrosian seem to remain unpopular as many Armenians continue to associate them with the economic hardship of the early 1990s.

One of those groups, Aylentrank (Alternative), highlighted the persisting lack of public support for the ex-president’s allies as it attracted only one thousand or so people to its first-ever rally in Yerevan on Tuesday. The supposedly non-partisan movement was set up late last year to campaign for the ouster of Armenia’s current leadership which it accuses of mismanaging the country and jeopardizing its independence. Its leaders hope to win over many people by offering a liberal ideological alternative to the policies pursued by the administration of President Robert Kocharian.

Interestingly, one local analyst told me last week that Aylentrank and Impeachment were expected to win support from young voters, but the impression that both were somehow supportive of, or sympathetic to, Levon Ter Petrosian instead worked against them. Nevertheless, I spoke to one young Armenian last night who voted for Impeachment on 12 May and she said she would not be against Ter Petrosian being pushed as a single candidate for the opposition although she did say she would prefer someone like Vazgen Manukian.

That said, I’m still not sure that many would welcome Ter Petrosian’s return to politics even if some opposition parties think otherwise. Of course, it’s somewhat strange to be even considering this possibility when Ter Petrosian himself has given no indication that he is considering doing so. Others will instead remind us that he did say he would return if the people requested him to do so, and especially if they now could see that the peace deal he was willing to consider with Azerbaijan was the best Armenia could hope for. However, I don’t see any sign of that happening yet.

Moreover, I even have to wonder if Levon Ter Petrosian’s return to politics wouldn’t instead result in more polarization and division within opposition ranks and actually work against them, but anyway.